XFT is currently in a narrow daily oscillation range with converging volatility. Marginal improvements in on-chain and exchange liquidity provide the basis for a technical rebound in the short term, with focus on a valid breakout in the 1.15-1.28 range. However, limited derivative and contract liquidity, coupled with concentrated trading distribution and dispersed funds inflow difficulties, restrict the rebound's magnitude and sustainability in the near term. From a mid-to-long-term perspective, overall market trading activity and risk appetite remain at low levels. A trend reversal in XFT depends on consistent improvements in global crypto market depth and funding costs. Short-term trading is advised to buy on dips for rebound opportunities, paying attention to liquidity and volume changes. For the mid-to-long term, maintain caution and watch for strategic entry opportunities.

Recently, XFT has shown a narrow range of oscillations on the daily chart, with noticeably converging volatility. This aligns with emerging rebound signals across the broader crypto market. Liquidity indicators on-chain and at exchanges are improving, suggesting that market sentiment may gradually recover from oversold levels, creating preliminary technical rebound conditions in the short term.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Analyst Willy Woo tweeted that he expects a short-term rebound in January due to rising liquidity, signaling a bottoming bounce. However, based on trading volume and fees, he remains bearish on the long-term macro cycle, describing the market as bleak.

Willy Woo: There will be a short-term bottoming rebound in January.

Although mainstream market trading sentiment is picking up, liquidity in derivatives and niche contracts remains insufficient. Data from third-party platforms shows that short-term contract activity and trading volumes are much lower than most sports and political contracts, with high transaction concentration and limited depth. Dispersed short-term capital cannot efficiently enter the market, potentially limiting the strength of XFT’s short-term breakout due to trading bottlenecks.

From the perspective of overall market trading fees and volume levels, the macro cycle remains in a relatively low range. Even if short-term liquidity improvement triggers temporary rebounds, fundamental risk appetite has yet to reverse. For XFT, whether it can exit the adjustment pattern in the mid-to-long term will depend on continuous improvement in trading depth and funding costs across the global crypto asset market.

Offshift

Hassett says Powell’s reappointment could delay Fed rate cuts, with crypto watching closely

U.S. PCE Inflation Rises to 3-Year High, Bitcoin Slides

US Treasury yields spike to highest levels in a year, adding a new problem for Bitcoin liquidity.

European Central Bank policymakers are likely to raise interest rates at their next meeting in June unless there are positive developments on energy prices and ending the Iran war.

The European Central Bank's inclination to raise interest rates has strengthened, with Lagarde emphasizing increased risks.

European Central Bank officials stated that if energy prices do not ease, interest rates will be raised in June.

Hassett: It's time for Powell to leave the Federal Reserve.

Here’s why the crypto market is falling today

Lagarde speech: Interest rates best tool we can use

The Fed’s PCE Data Used to Measure Inflation Has Been Released! Here’s Bitcoin’s (BTC) Initial Reaction!

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