The RAGE market is currently in a phase of volatility contraction and net capital inflow. High leveraged entry via derivatives has heightened risk appetite, which may lead to short-term, sentiment-driven upward movement; however, caution is warranted as the risk of drawdown could intensify. On the macro front, US stocks consolidating at highs and expectations of loose liquidity reinforce mid- to long-term liquidity support for the market. Technically, RAGE is consolidating in a narrow range—monitor the breakout above the 10-day moving average (primary resistance, recently around X) and the holding of the recent lows (support level Y). It is advised to strictly manage leverage, focusing on range trading in the short term. If resistance is decisively broken, moderate position expansion is possible; otherwise, beware of the downside risk from potential capital outflow.

Recently, the derivatives side of the market has shown a pattern of both volatility contraction and capital inflow. Entry by high-leverage funds has boosted risk appetite. Against a backdrop of abundant liquidity, RAGE may see sentiment-driven volatility opportunities in the short term. At the same time, attention must be paid to the risk that high leverage could intensify drawdown pressure.

10x Research reports that despite low market activity entering the new year, derivative positions indicate contrasting signals with narrowing volatility, increasing capital flow, and high leverage. Bitcoin's downtrend may reverse to an uptrend in January, with RSI at 43% and stochastic at 30%, showing mixed signals. Ethereum shows similar patterns, with RSI at 44% and stochastic at 23%, suggesting a potential trend reversal soon. Key price levels for both are identified.

10x Research: Market Undercurrents Stirring, BTC and ETH May Face Trend Reversal

Overseas stock markets are consolidating near historic highs, with loose liquidity expectations and potential rate cuts catalyzing a rotation to risk assets. As the consensus grows that the US rate hiking cycle is ending, more capital may be allocated to the crypto sector, providing RAGE with mid- to long-term liquidity support. However, divergent performance across technology sectors reminds investors to monitor relative valuations and risk exposures between asset classes.

Looking at the daily chart of RAGE, price volatility has narrowed significantly, with trading volume slightly up from previous levels. The RSI remains in a neutral-to-bullish zone, showing short-term indecision between bulls and bears. The Bollinger Band width is flattening, indicating the trend has yet to pick a direction. The 10-day moving average serves as the primary resistance—if broken and held, it confirms further upside; the recent local lows provide reliable support, but if high-leverage funds exit in force, a retest to the downside may follow.

RAGE GUY

European Central Bank officials stated that if energy prices do not ease, interest rates will be raised in June.

Hassett: It's time for Powell to leave the Federal Reserve.

Here’s why the crypto market is falling today

Lagarde speech: Interest rates best tool we can use

The Fed’s PCE Data Used to Measure Inflation Has Been Released! Here’s Bitcoin’s (BTC) Initial Reaction!

Lagarde speech: Debated at length a hike

Lagarde discussed various options, including the possibility of an interest rate hike.

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge rose to its highest level in nearly three years

The US GDP is expected to grow by 2% in early 2026, indicating economic resilience.

After the release of U.S. economic data, the probability expectation of an interest rate hike slightly increased.

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