Against the backdrop of capital outflow exhaustion in the Bitcoin market, persistently high pressure indexes, and an overall decline in risk appetite, although SERAPH has found some short-term support around 0.00535, the momentum for a rebound is notably lacking, with the 0.009–0.01 range forming the major resistance above. If there is no improvement in Bitcoin capital inflow and sentiment recovery, SERAPH is more likely to continue its oscillatory downward trend. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now and closely watch the 0.00535 support effectiveness and the breakthrough of 0.009 resistance. If the support is breached, there is a risk of further correction to 0.0049. A breakout, on the other hand, could provide short-term opportunities.

According to the latest data, Bitcoin futures capital inflow index has rapidly dropped from about 50 to 7.1%, accompanied by the local pressure index nearing a high of 92.5, indicating the market is in a typical 'sell-off' and pressure accumulation phase. This sharp turn in sentiment has intensified the overall pullback in risk appetite. In the short term, the market may continue to face supply-side pressure and a lack of buying interest.

From January 18 to 19, SERAPH once spiked from 0.00842 to 0.02213, with high trading volumes accompanying a concentrated outburst of short-term speculative sentiment. However, the price quickly retraced, with closing prices remaining below 0.0094 for several days, and it only saw a technical rebound after dropping to 0.00535 on January 29. Overall, the multiple sharp surges and drops formed a volatile pattern that has not reversed the medium-term downtrend, reflecting a pressured status after high-level speculative funds exited.

Amid the broader sell-off pattern in the Bitcoin market, SERAPH saw strong rebounds on January 31 and February 1, but encountered resistance above 0.01113 on February 2, closing back down to 0.006 and forming a typical M-top structure. Traders should beware that after several failed rebounds, volatility may increase again. If Bitcoin's capital conditions remain tight, it will be difficult for SERAPH to break and sustain above the 0.009 resistance region.

From a technical perspective, SERAPH has shown short-term support around 0.00535. If this level is breached, the downside may extend towards 0.0049. To regain bullish momentum, a confirmed breakout of the 0.009–0.01 range along with volume support is required. Given the current weak capital and market sentiment for Bitcoin, continued weakness is likely to remain the main theme for SERAPH. Traders should closely monitor any reversal signals in Bitcoin's capital flows and pressure index.

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