WTF will benefit in the short term from the rebound in market risk appetite and the rotation of funds towards high-beta assets, but investors should be wary of the risk of pullbacks during the current price recovery phase. Structural liquidity shortages and low capital efficiency make it vulnerable to one-sided trading shocks, amplifying volatility. Investors are advised to pay attention to platform depth and market-making capability, align positions with overall market trends and key support levels (suggested reference range: 0.018~0.022 USDT), adopt a swing trading approach, use periodic adjustments to optimize positions, strictly control chasing highs, and guard against the retracement risk when liquidity subsidies withdraw.

Recently, Bitcoin broke through the $90,000 mark, Ethereum's major holders turned from losses to profits, and overall market liquidity improved, boosting investors' risk appetite. Many altcoins saw stagelike price surges exceeding 20%, reflecting a short-term capital concentration toward high-beta assets. As a small-cap token, WTF often correlates with major tokens and is expected to benefit from sentiment-driven strength in the short term. However, caution is needed as the market remains in a 'price recovery' phase, which may bring sudden pullbacks.

At the start of the year, the crypto market saw a rare upward breakthrough with BTC surpassing $90,000 and major altcoins like ETH and SOL rising. Several altcoins, including PEPE and IP, surged over 20%. However, key indicators show the market is still in a "price repair" phase with overall market cap below previous highs, a low altseason index, and fear-dominated sentiment. While some view this as a buying opportunity amid improving liquidity and macroeconomic developments, caution remains advised.

Speculation sentiment rises again at the beginning of the year, is the altcoin season repeating?

As of January 5, with Ethereum surpassing $3,200, major holders Trend Research and a whale with $230 million long positions have moved from losses to profits. The $230 million whale, holding 203,000 ETH at an average cost of $3,147, shifted from a $74 million loss to a $14 million gain. Trend Research, leveraging Aave to hold 626,000 ETH at about $3,186 each, went from a $141 million loss to an $8.77 million profit.

Trend Research and the $230M Long Whale in Ethereum Holdings Have Turned Profitable

Analyst Willy Woo tweeted that he expects a short-term rebound in January due to rising liquidity, signaling a bottoming bounce. However, based on trading volume and fees, he remains bearish on the long-term macro cycle, describing the market as bleak.

Willy Woo: There will be a short-term bottoming rebound in January.

Currently, prediction markets are still mired in liquidity shortages and low capital efficiency. A few top contracts absorb nearly half the trading volume, while most contracts have no trading activity, raising participation barriers and inventory risks. If WTF or its derivatives enter such markets, their prices will be heavily influenced by one-sided strategies and the market cycles of large liquidity subsidies, potentially amplifying volatility. Investors should carefully assess the trading platform’s depth and professional market-making capability to avoid significant drawdowns when liquidity peaks or subsidies are withdrawn.

The article critically examines the current state of prediction markets, arguing they have fallen into a "local optimum" trap similar to past tech failures like BlackBerry and Yahoo. While binary options models have gained short-term traction, they suffer from liquidity shortages and low capital efficiency. The author advocates evolving prediction markets toward a perpetual contract model to achieve a truly universal, liquid market, emphasizing the need for radical redesign and humility to overcome structural limitations and realize their full potential.

Falling into a local optimum, market predictions should not stop here.

The article discusses the challenges of market making in prediction markets, highlighting that less than 10% survive until year-end. Unlike AMM-based markets, prediction markets rely on order book models with higher operational complexity, inventory risk, and volatile, jumpy price movements driven by discrete events. Successful market making requires advanced strategies and risk management, often beyond ordinary users' capabilities. Leading platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi invest heavily in liquidity subsidies, creating strong barriers for new entrants and reinforcing dominant players.

Prediction markets are tough: less than 10% may actually survive until the end of the year.

PANews analyzed 295,000 historical markets on Polymarket, revealing that 63.16% of short-term markets (under 1 day) had zero transactions in 24 hours. Short-term crypto markets suffer from low liquidity, with sports markets averaging $1.32 million in volume, 30 times higher than crypto's $44,000. A small number of top contracts (505) account for 47% of total volume. Long-term markets (>30 days) have 45 times more liquidity, led by US politics. Geopolitical markets are the fastest-growing segment. Polymarket is polarizing into "high-frequency sports betting" and "macro political hedging," with liquidity concentrated in few top narratives.

PANews data: 63% of the short-term market on Polymarket had 0 transactions in the last 24 hours, with 505 top contracts accounting for 47% of the trading volume.

Trend investing emphasizes gradually increasing positions during bull markets and timely reducing positions during bear markets. Although it cannot precisely capture bottoms or tops, structured judgment of stage highs and lows can generate advantageous returns in swing trading. WTF investors should combine overall market trends with key price levels for swing allocations, avoid blindly chasing highs at liquidity turning points, and use periodic pullbacks to adjust holdings, thereby optimizing the risk-reward ratio.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua emphasized the importance of trend investing, stating that one should buy in a bull market and sell in a bear market. He noted that it's impossible to buy at the lowest or sell at the highest points. Yi highlighted that their approach is simply to share their understanding and operations without competing with others, and that profits or losses are determined by the market, alongside personal growth and connections made during the process.

Yi Lihua: Stick to trend investing, winning or losing is determined by the market.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua stated that respected investors like Buffett profit from value and trends, not speculation. He affirmed that 2024 is set to be a bull market due to macro and industry factors beyond individual control. Short sellers are making a final effort but face losses—exiting early means small losses, exiting late means large losses. After a month of market volatility, optimism will prevail while pessimists lag behind.

Yi Lihua: Trend is better than speculation, the bull market is set, bears face "small losses early, big losses late."

Waterfall Governance

The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged as expected.

Rising Fuel Prices Could Force Excruciating Choices on Economic Policies

A Small Change at the FED Caused Bitcoin to Fall! – Wall Street Giant Morgan Stanley Revised Its FED Interest Rate Forecasts After Yesterday’s...

BoE: Holding fire with two-sided risks – Deutsche Bank

Fed: Warsh-led cuts seen limited – Rabobank

Japan's Katayama: Getting closer to taking decisive step in FX market

Bitcoin price slips on ‘discord’ risk at Fed amid messy regime change. ‘No choice but to stay’

Ouch. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield just hit 5% and bitcoin may pay the price.

Bank of Japan: High oil prices and a weak yen could keep core inflation at around 3% for two consecutive years

The Federal Reserve maintains the interest rate at 3.5%-3.75%, continuing its wait-and-see approach.

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