AVA is under short-term pressure due to macro risk aversion sentiments. If the $0.274 support level is broken, there is a risk of further decline to the $0.260–$0.268 range. From a technical perspective, attention should be paid to whether resistance at $0.290 and $0.3015 can be breached. In the medium to long term, AVA’s quarterly upward channel is still intact, with on-chain ecosystem growth and institutional demand serving as core supports. It is recommended to observe cautiously in the short term, wait for market sentiment to recover and key supports to stabilize before gradually building positions.

Over the past week, volatility in the crypto market has intensified, with major assets showing signs of retracement after continuous profit-taking. AVA’s price also declined from its early May high, dropping from $0.3015 on May 4th to $0.2773 on May 12th. During this process, increased concerns over interest rate expectations and geopolitical tensions on the macro front diminished market risk appetite, resulting in weaker buying momentum and more aggressive short positioning. In the short term, this risk aversion will continue to pressure AVA. If index fund flows do not noticeably improve, AVA’s price may continue testing support near $0.274.

Bitcoin fell below $80,000 after five consecutive days of net inflows into spot ETFs ended, signaling a cooling rebound from February lows. Stronger-than-expected US April jobs data heightened concerns over energy-driven inflation limiting rate cuts. Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw significant outflows, reflecting reduced institutional risk appetite. Rising US-Iran tensions pushed oil prices up, offsetting some risk asset support. Derivatives suggest prolonged hawkish rate expectations, with retail participation low and market momentum weak, posing a risk of Bitcoin retesting $75,000–$78,000 support.

Analysis: Bitcoin surged then fell back below $80K, with ETF outflows and geopolitical risks jointly suppressing market sentiment.

From the daily chart perspective, AVA has closed below the 10-day moving average transaction price for multiple consecutive sessions. Short-term moving averages are displaying a death cross, reflecting fierce competition between buyers and sellers in the $0.284–$0.289 range. The $0.274 level has served as effective support multiple times since late April; if it is breached, a further decline to the $0.260–$0.268 region is possible. If AVA can regain $0.290 and firmly reclaim the early May high of $0.3015, short-to-medium-term bullish momentum will be reactivated.

Looking at the longer-term trend, AVA’s quarterly upward trajectory since mid-April remains within a valid range. As of May 2nd, the price has risen more than 28% from $0.209. Previously, abundant overall market liquidity and incremental institutional demand for digital assets drove the price higher. Despite facing volatility from macro rates and geopolitical risks in the short term, from a value investing perspective, as long as the on-chain ecosystem continues to develop and the demand for asset allocation persists, AVA retains upward momentum in the medium to long term. Investors are advised to patiently monitor opportunities to enter the market following adjustment.

AVA (Travala)

Kevin Warsh, the man set to be confirmed as the new head of the US central bank, might want to reduce interest rates, but inflation is not cooperating. Here’s why that matters for British investors as much as it does the US.

The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasuries rose to the highest since July after US wholesale inflation accelerated in April to the fastest pace since 2022.

US wholesale inflation accelerated in April to the fastest pace since 2022 due to a war-driven increase in energy prices, which is contributing to higher transportation costs.

ECB Governing Council Member Köhler: June meeting will decide whether to raise interest rates or keep them unchanged.

Czech monetary policy is still restrictive even after an acceleration in inflation due to the fallout of the Iran war, although price risks require more caution, according to the central bank.

Data: CPI exceeds expectations triggering BTC derivatives deleveraging, four major exchanges' open contracts reduced by $1.25B in a single day

Analysis: CPI exceeding expectations triggers BTC derivatives deleveraging, with open contracts on the four major exchanges shrinking by $1.25 billion in a single day.

Digital Assets Show Gains; US Inflation Reaches a Near Three-Year High

UBS expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in 2026 and 2027.

Japanese investors sold a net $29.6 billion worth of U.S. bonds in the quarter, the highest since Q2 2022.

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