With the current macro environment improving, ATUSD has moderate short-term upside potential, but market liquidity remains highly differentiated and the risk of chasing highs persists. It is recommended to pay attention to the coordination of capital inflows and trading volume, build positions in batches around key support levels (reference range: $2.80-3.00), and add positions after a breakout above $3.20 with high volume. However, strict risk and position control is required to guard against liquidity islands and corrections caused by trend divergences. Overall, strategies should be flexible and prudent, prioritizing the safety of principal.

Recent data indicate that overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, with multiple indicators showing a positive trend. However, the upward movement is still in its early stages and more data are needed to confirm the sustainability of the trend. On the sentiment front, investor pessimism regarding the market outlook has eased, but short-term trading volumes remain low and volatility may persist. For ATUSD, it is more appropriate in the short term to focus on the coordination between trading volume and price, and avoid blindly adding positions before a reversal in sentiment.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Cross-platform liquidity distribution shows that short-term contract trading depth is clearly insufficient, while capital allocation in long-term derivatives is more concentrated. Liquidity is primarily focused on a few high-profile contracts, while a large number of small contracts remain inactive. This structural divergence means that for ATUSD to maintain effective swings, support and breakout points must be found through large position sizes or cross-period arbitrage strategies in a thin short-term market. Traders should be wary of liquidity island effects and reasonably control leverage and position size.

PANews analyzed 295,000 historical markets on Polymarket, revealing that 63.16% of short-term markets (under 1 day) had zero transactions in 24 hours. Short-term crypto markets suffer from low liquidity, with sports markets averaging $1.32 million in volume, 30 times higher than crypto's $44,000. A small number of top contracts (505) account for 47% of total volume. Long-term markets (>30 days) have 45 times more liquidity, led by US politics. Geopolitical markets are the fastest-growing segment. Polymarket is polarizing into "high-frequency sports betting" and "macro political hedging," with liquidity concentrated in few top narratives.

PANews data: 63% of the short-term market on Polymarket had 0 transactions in the last 24 hours, with 505 top contracts accounting for 47% of the trading volume.

The current Bitcoin market has shifted from a deleveraging phase to a stage of moderate expansion, with funds mainly entering through the spot market and a relatively slow pace of leveraged capital inflows. This structural recovery reduces liquidation risks and smooths overall market volatility. For ATUSD, Bitcoin continues to play a significant role as a pricing anchor. Against the backdrop of Bitcoin’s steady price appreciation, ATUSD is also expected to benefit in terms of its tracking ability and liquidity. However, caution should be maintained regarding the risk of corrections due to potential trend divergence.

Taking into account the current improvement in market sentiment, liquidity divergence, and the robust expansion of Bitcoin, ATUSD shows some short-term upside, but liquidity and chasing-high risks cannot be ignored. Recommendations: On one hand, consider building positions in batches near key support levels to cope with price fluctuations driven by sentiment swings; on the other, if increased volume confirms a bullish trend, positions can be moderately increased. It is crucial to employ stop-loss strategies for drawdown control and maintain position flexibility before sustained volume confirmation.

Aave TUSD v1

Daly: All FOMC members unanimously agree to keep interest rates unchanged.

Assets See Pullback; Federal Reserve Signals Potential for Further Rate Hikes

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said the language in policymakers’ post-meeting statement suggesting the central bank’s next move would be a cut did not match her outlook.

Fed's Hammack: Signals about the next move being a rate cut are misleading

Hamak: The Federal Reserve has failed to meet its inflation target for years.

Hamak: The Federal Reserve's rate cut signals are misleading.

Hammack: The Federal Reserve's baseline scenario is that interest rates will remain unchanged.

Federal Reserve's Collins: Supports keeping interest rates unchanged, inclined to adjust statement wording

Fed's Susan Collins says she agreed with colleagues who dissented at last week’s monetary policy gathering over wording that suggested the central bank would eventually resume rate cuts

Huobi Growth Academy | Crypto Market Macro Report: Bitcoin Returns to $80K, Major Shift in US-Iran Situation and Fed Leadership Change

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