Currently, BONK remains range-bound between 0.0000060–0.00000635, constrained by the overall risk appetite of Bitcoin, which has not yet rebounded. The trading volume is limited, leading to a lack of a clear short-term trend. Recently, high short interest rates combined with sharp volatility suggest potential for a shift in sentiment. It is advised to avoid chasing highs near the upper range boundary and to consider gradually building positions when buy orders emerge at the lower support. At the same time, enhance stop-loss discipline, dynamically manage position exposure, and strictly control the risk of sudden sentiment-driven volatility.

Short-term Bitcoin investors are no longer experiencing significant losses, but prices remain below their cost basis, indicating that the market has not truly shifted to risk-on. As a typical high-beta asset, BONK finds it difficult to break away and rise independently under constrained overall risk appetite. Currently, BONK is oscillating around 0.0000062; although trading volume has slightly picked up, there is no sustained increase, reflecting that both bulls and bears are waiting to see the direction of volatility. A unilateral trend is unlikely in the short term.

ChainCatcher reports that Bitcoin short-term holders' discount has narrowed from -21.6% to -5.7%, with the STH-SOPR 7-day average rising above 1, indicating short-term sellers are no longer clearly at a loss. However, the current price remains below the $83,000 cost basis, suggesting the market has not yet entered a true risk-on phase.

Data: Analysis: Short-term Bitcoin holders' discount narrows, market warms up but risk appetite has not yet started.

Recently, Bitcoin’s short borrowing rates have climbed to an annualized 11%–19%, the highest in nearly three years, while large buying orders are also entering the market—signaling a tug-of-war between bulls and bears at elevated levels. Against this backdrop, as a derivative in the secondary market, BONK’s short-term volatility may further increase. Daily data shows that on April 29, BONK’s intraday swing reached nearly 8%. When market sentiment spikes suddenly, it may lead to brief surges or panic pullbacks. Traders should beware of the risks of rapid entries and exits driven by abrupt sentiment shifts.

From a technical standpoint, BONK has established a trading range of 0.0000060–0.00000635 in recent months. The lower level at 0.0000060 has repeatedly attracted buy support, while the upper boundary at 0.00000635 serves as strong resistance. If Bitcoin’s broader risk appetite recovers and lifts the overall market, a breakout above resistance could attract momentum buyers. Conversely, if short-term risk aversion resurfaces, consider taking partial profits or adding to positions near the support level as planned. Given the potential increase in volatility, it is recommended to control position size, use flexible stop-loss and take-profit strategies, and be vigilant against crowded directional risk.

Based Bonk

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