BB saw a short-term breakout above $0.03 with strong trading volume, marking a transition from range-bound consolidation to a bullish trend on the technical front. Short-term support has shifted upward into the $0.026-$0.03 region. Improved macro liquidity and rising risk appetite are expected to drive continued medium-term capital inflows, with focus on resistance above $0.035. It is recommended to hold with the trend, closely monitor macro policy changes and volatility of major assets like Bitcoin, and be alert to sentiment reversal risks.

Recently, Bitcoin futures open interest has fallen sharply to year-to-date lows, resulting in a general market deleveraging. In a low-leverage environment, even small-scale capital inflows can trigger notable price swings, causing BB’s intraday price range to widen. Meanwhile, perpetual derivatives funding rates remain negative, reflecting cautious positioning on both sides and amplifying BB’s short-term volatility through rapid sentiment shifts.

Bitcoin futures open interest has halved from $42 billion in October 2025 to $21 billion, indicating a deep market deleveraging. Current low leverage means even small capital inflows can significantly impact prices. Funding rates have fluctuated sharply between -12% and +7%, showing rapid shifts in market sentiment. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, no major liquidations have occurred since early February, reflecting a healthier position structure. Bitcoin awaits a clear directional trend amid heightened market sensitivity.

Analysis: The market has undergone a round of deep deleveraging, and Bitcoin is waiting to choose a direction.

As Middle East tensions ease, oil prices decline and inflation expectations stabilize. Investment banks and asset managers are lowering their hawkish monetary policy outlooks, providing liquidity support for Bitcoin and other high-risk assets. Against this backdrop, the market’s stance has shifted from risk aversion to tentative long positioning. BB, as a small-cap token, is equally benefitting—its price has gradually lifted from the $0.024 level and has demonstrated notable resilience amid continuous rebounds.

Bitcoin call options with an $80,000 strike price on Deribit have surged to over $1.6 billion in open interest, surpassing $1.41 billion in $60,000 put options, signaling a market shift amid improving sentiment. Analysts link this to a temporary US-Iran ceasefire easing oil prices and inflation concerns, boosting expectations for Fed rate cuts and benefiting risk assets like Bitcoin. Asset manager 21Shares notes that with ongoing ETF inflows and institutional holdings, Bitcoin could approach $100,000 by Q2 end if geopolitical and regulatory conditions improve, though risks remain if Middle East tensions escalate.

Analysis: Bitcoin $80K call options open interest exceeds $1.6 billion, market bets on a rally driven by a combination of trend reversal and rate cut expectations.

Bitcoin surged past $72,000, rising about 3% to approximately $72,300, driven by easing tensions in the Middle East. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reportedly initiated talks with Lebanon, supported by Trump's call for reduced Israeli military actions to maintain a ceasefire. Bitcoin's 24-hour gain of around 2% outpaced other major cryptocurrencies and coincided with a rebound in U.S. stocks and a drop in oil prices. Bitcoin is increasingly decoupling from tech stocks, influenced more by geopolitical and risk-averse factors.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks through $72,000, Middle East ceasefire expectations boost market sentiment.

BitMart Research Weekly highlights easing US-Iran tensions and a hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve, driving a rebound in risk assets including crypto. US stocks, especially AI-related sectors, show strong recovery amid geopolitical risks. Inflation data signals potential upward pressure if oil prices stay high. Crypto markets follow US stocks with BTC and ETH leading, while altcoins remain volatile. Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy’s increased BTC holdings indicate long-term confidence.

BitMart Research Institute Weekly Hotspot Analysis: US-Iran Easing Combined with Fed's Hawkish Shift, Crypto Market Follows Rebound to Form a Bottom

On the historical daily chart, BB repeatedly consolidated in the $0.023–$0.026 range for nearly three weeks, with several failed breakout attempts and a clear box pattern. On April 16, trading volume surged to around 25 million tokens; a long lower-shadow bullish candle closed decisively above the key $0.03 level, signaling a clear bullish-volume breakout. The previous resistance area now acts as support, increasing the likelihood of an ongoing uptrend.

Institutional interest in crypto asset allocation continues to rise globally, especially with steady capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and price recovery in Ethereum, collectively providing long-term liquidity support to the market. Against a backdrop of a range-bound US dollar index, potential tailwinds may gradually benefit on-chain assets. If the underlying market trend remains robust, BB is poised to follow the general bullish momentum toward targets of $0.035 and above, though caution is warranted regarding sentiment swings from macro policy or major asset corrections.

In Q1 2026, the Ethereum to Bitcoin price ratio (ETH/BTC) rebounded to 0.0313, a three-month high, indicating a recovery in the crypto market. Ethereum network users grew 82% year-on-year to 284,000, with transaction volume reaching 200.4 million. Stablecoin supply exceeded $180 billion, about 60% of the global market. Analysts suggest that if ETH/BTC closes above 0.035 weekly, it signals continued inflows into Ethereum and high-risk assets. Bitcoin remains above $74,000, supported by over $56 billion inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Analysis: Ethereum-Bitcoin price ratio rebounds, overall crypto market recovers

Brown Brothers Harriman expects the Dollar Index (DXY) to continue trading within its nearly one-year range of 96.00–100.00 in the coming months, driven primarily by rate differentials. They believe risk sentiment bottomed on March 30 and markets are shifting focus from the IMF’s gloomy growth forecasts to a recovery narrative, with the worst of the energy shock likely behind us.

DXY: Range-bound trading expected to continue — BBH

BitBoard

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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