COINX faces short-term pressure, capped at the 205 level. If Bitcoin fails to stabilize above key thresholds, a retracement to the 190-195 range is expected. Short-term advice is to keep position sizes small and stay on the sidelines. Divergence in both capital and sentiment is intensifying; falling funding rates and declining open interest indicate market caution, and the consolidation phase may be extended. In the medium to long term, mainstream asset flows and institutional allocation demand support increased risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market. COINX has key buying support in the 170-175 region—if it stabilizes effectively, consider gradually accumulating at lower levels in the mid-term and watch for confirmation signals of a bullish trend.

After Bitcoin approached historical highs and tested key resistance, a significant amount of short-term profits was realized, leading to downward pressure in the overall market. COINX experienced resistance and pullback around the 205 level on the daily chart, with two consecutive days of lower closes and visibly shrinking trading volume, indicating fading short-term bullish momentum. The recent highs lack sustained volume support; if Bitcoin fails to hold above key support, a secondary pullback of COINX to the 190-195 range remains a risk in the short term.

CryptoQuant's research head Julio Moreno warns that Bitcoin's recent price rise faces increasing profit-taking risks, with on-chain indicators showing growing sell pressure. Bitcoin is testing the key "realized price" resistance at $76,800, historically a strong bearish barrier. Large transactions have surged, indicating stronger short-term selling. If Bitcoin stays above $76,000, realized profits may exceed $1 billion daily, intensifying sell-offs and potential price pullbacks.

CryptoQuant: Bitcoin on-chain indicators show increasing selling pressure, rising risk of profit-taking

Bitcoin rose to around $74,935 during the Asian session, up 0.7% in 24 hours and 5.4% weekly, driven mainly by spot buying rather than broad risk appetite. Derivatives markets show caution: perpetual contract funding rates remain negative, open interest declines, and options indicate higher demand for downside protection. This suggests a rebound, not a trend reversal, amid ongoing risk aversion and cautious sentiment despite gains.

Analysis: Bitcoin strengthens along with US stocks, but the options market still bets on downside risk.

Perpetual contract funding rates, after surpassing 0.01%, quickly dropped back to near zero or even turned negative, indicating a divide in overall market sentiment. At the same time, the futures market did not see any large-scale new positions, and open interest declined, reflecting participants’ doubts about the market's outlook. COINX has remained relatively stable amid the choppy pullback, but short-term sentiment is still mostly cautious. If capital flows continue to weaken, volatility may intensify and the consolidation period could be further extended.

According to Coinglass data on April 16, as Bitcoin continues to rise, the funding rates on major centralized and decentralized exchanges indicate a significant weakening of the bearish market sentiment. Funding rates, used to balance perpetual contract prices with underlying asset prices, show that when rates exceed 0.01%, the market is generally bullish, while rates below 0.005% indicate bearish sentiment.

The current mainstream CEX and DEX funding rates indicate a significant weakening of the bearish market sentiment.

On April 17, Coinglass data showed that as Bitcoin maintained a volatile trend, the funding rates on major CEX and DEX platforms indicated a deepening bearish sentiment in the market. Funding rates, used to balance perpetual contract prices with underlying asset prices, reflect trader sentiment: rates above 0.01% signal bullishness, while rates below 0.005% indicate bearishness. Current rates suggest increased market pessimism.

The current mainstream CEX and DEX funding rates indicate a deepening bearish sentiment in the market.

Bitcoin continues to outflow from centralized exchanges to long-term holding addresses. In addition, the ETH/BTC ratio has hit a three-month high, and the net inflow scale of US Bitcoin ETFs has reached record levels, indicating that institutions and large holders remain eager to allocate digital assets. Against this backdrop, as an important altcoin, COINX also benefits from the rising market risk appetite as a whole. Daily moving averages remain bullish on the mid-to-long-term trend; key attention should be paid to whether the 170-175 support zone will hold after a pullback to judge the confirmation of the next bullish trend cycle.

According to analyst Darkfrost, Bitcoin has experienced nearly daily net outflows from centralized exchanges (CEX) for almost two months, with an average monthly net outflow of 1,640 BTC since March. This trend indicates investor accumulation and is seen as a positive signal of reduced selling pressure, suggesting that Bitcoin is moving from exchanges to long-term holding wallets during the current price consolidation phase.

Analysis: Bitcoin CEX net outflows have continued for nearly two months, indicating the market has entered an accumulation phase.

In Q1 2026, the Ethereum to Bitcoin price ratio (ETH/BTC) rebounded to 0.0313, a three-month high, indicating a recovery in the crypto market. Ethereum network users grew 82% year-on-year to 284,000, with transaction volume reaching 200.4 million. Stablecoin supply exceeded $180 billion, about 60% of the global market. Analysts suggest that if ETH/BTC closes above 0.035 weekly, it signals continued inflows into Ethereum and high-risk assets. Bitcoin remains above $74,000, supported by over $56 billion inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Analysis: Ethereum-Bitcoin price ratio rebounds, overall crypto market recovers

According to Coinglass data on April 16, Coinbase's Bitcoin premium index has been positive for 8 consecutive days, currently at 0.0401%, indicating a continued recovery in US market buying sentiment after 15 days of negative premium. The index measures the price difference of Bitcoin on Coinbase compared to the global average, reflecting US market capital flow, institutional interest, and market sentiment. Positive premium suggests strong US buying, active institutional participation, ample dollar liquidity, and optimistic investor sentiment.

Buying sentiment in the US market continues to improve, with the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index remaining positive for 8 consecutive days.

Coinbase xStock

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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