The current sentiment in the crypto market has shifted from caution to tentative optimism, but signals are still in the early phase and large-scale capital has yet to enter. Technically, close attention should be paid to short-term moving average golden crosses and corresponding volume increases. If daily candlesticks consistently close with medium to long upper shadows alongside rising volume, it can be considered as a confirmation of short-term bullishness; otherwise, the rebound may be just a technical correction. It is recommended to test positions gradually with small lots, set strict stop-losses, monitor key moving averages and previous high supports, and avoid heavy positions before the trend becomes clear.

Recently, some views have indicated that the crypto market is showing signs of recovery, with overall investor sentiment shifting from caution to tentative optimism. In the short term, the market is no longer purely bearish, but is paying more attention to the potential for a trend reversal. However, as these signals are still in their budding phase and capital has not fully entered, overall sentiment leans towards cautious bullishness, and it is necessary to remain prudent and avoid excessive buying at high levels.

Based on historical candlestick analysis frameworks, the most critical point now is to observe the arrangement of multiple moving averages and significant changes in trading volume. If several subsequent daily candles consistently close with medium to long upper shadows accompanied by increased volume, and short-term moving averages show a golden cross, this can be regarded as an initial signal of short-term bullish confirmation. Conversely, if volume fails to effectively support the price rebound, or moving averages flatten out or even show a death cross, the original rebound may simply be a technical correction, so one should remain alert to the risk of false breakouts.

At the current stage, where signals have not yet been fully confirmed, it is recommended to enter with small position sizes in batches, and set strict stop-loss lines to avoid irrational drawdowns. Focus on previous highs and important moving average support levels, and promptly exit if prices break below these points. At the same time, continue tracking follow-up candlestick and market data; only consider gradually increasing positions after a more explicit trend reversal is confirmed.

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Important news from last night and this morning (April 16 - April 17).

Bank of Japan Governor: We need to simultaneously address rising energy prices and economic downturn risks; policy-making is very difficult at this stage.

ECB policymakers play down April rate hike chances

Declining energy prices have moved the euro-zone economy back toward the European Central Bank’s base case and may mean interest-rate increases aren’t needed, according to Governing Council member Primoz Dolenc.

Fed’s John Williams Signals Support for Holding Rates Steady Ahead of FOMC Meeting

Federal Reserve Governor Milian: Currently, it seems that there may only be three rate cuts remaining for the rest of the year.

Milan: Prefers to cut interest rates 3 times this year, but possibly 4 times.

Latin America: Diverging central bank paths – BNP Paribas

Fed's Williams: If inflation reaches target level, rate cuts are still expected

Federal Reserve's Williams: Now is not the time to provide forward guidance on interest rates.

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