The current market sentiment of the STUPID token is somewhat supported. Although US retail sales data is weak, expectations for interest rate cuts remain, resulting in a mildly bullish short-term risk sentiment. While political disturbances have no substantial impact on macro policy, short-term volatility requires attention to changes in trading volume and volatility. As the stablecoin concept gains popularity, if the STUPID token can achieve interconnectivity with stablecoin ecosystems, its liquidity and capital attractiveness will be enhanced. Market monitoring shows that bottom signals are gradually emerging, with only 8% of altcoins currently exhibiting negative momentum, far below the historical bottom threshold. Investors are advised to pay attention to momentum indicators and signs of stable price structures to capture mid- to long-term value support.

US retail sales data for May came in generally weaker than expected. Although the core control group slightly exceeded expectations, monthly movements remain difficult to interpret. Market pricing for a year-end rate cut fell slightly but remains at around 50 basis points. This data suggests that expectations for a short-term Fed rate cut persist, thus providing some support for risk assets. For STUPID token, short-term sentiment is expected to remain mildly bullish, and traders should monitor subsequent macro data for ongoing effects on risk appetite.

Forexlive的分析师报道，在美国5月零售销售数据公布之前，市场对年底前联邦储备利率降息的预期为49个基点，数据公布后略微调整为48.5个基点。即将召开的FOMC会议将考虑这一零售销售数据，整体显示疲软，尽管控制组——消费者状况的关键指标略超预期。由于3月的销售额因关税担忧大幅增加，随后两个月出现下降，导致数据难以解读。

Analysis: U.S. retail sales data overall remain weak, with market pricing largely unchanged.

Recently, public criticism and response between US political figures and the Fed Chairman have added to market uncertainty, though they have not materially altered macro policy direction. Political disruptions often trigger short-term emotional volatility, particularly in markets with limited liquidity, amplifying differences between buyers and sellers. For the STUPID token, such noise events are mainly sentiment disturbances. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in trading volume and volatility to determine if there are signals of capital inflows or outflows.

Jerome Powell responds to Donald Trump's remarks labeling him as "stupid."

Powell responds to Trump's remarks calling him "stupid".

Federal Reserve Chair Powell addresses why he does not consider himself "stupid" in a live discussion.

Federal Reserve Chair Powell Explains Why He Doesn't Consider Himself "Stupid".

Trump criticized Federal Reserve officials, labeling them as "stupid" and specifically mentioning that there is a "stupid person" at the Fed.

Trump Criticizes Federal Reserve Officials, Calling Them Stupid.

Stablecoin-related concept stocks in the A-share market have collectively strengthened, with individual stocks rising nearly 10% to 14%. This phenomenon reflects growing attention from institutions and retail investors to the value and application scenarios behind stablecoins. For the STUPID token, if it enables interconnection with stablecoins or acts as a payment medium, it may benefit from this surge in interest. Over the medium to long term, continued expansion of the stablecoin ecosystem is expected to provide liquidity and funding support for related tokens.

On June 23, data from Tonghuashun revealed that stablecoin-related stocks were active in the A-share market. The top six stocks on Tonghuashun's hot list in the past hour were all related to stablecoins, including Hengbao Co., Sifang Jingchuang, Annie Co., Chutianlong, Dongxin He Ping, and Lakala, with daily gains of 9.39%, 14.28%, 9.97%, 9.04%, 2.49%, and 11.59%, respectively.

Data: The top 6 stocks in the recent 1-hour hot list on Tonghuashun are all related to stablecoin concepts.

Monitoring data indicates that the market is currently in the process of forming a bottom, with only 8% of altcoins exhibiting negative momentum, far below the historical bottom zone threshold of 15%–25%. From the perspective of risk sentiment and reflexivity, market bottoms are often accompanied by stage-wise corrections at the point of lowest consensus. For the STUPID token, this suggests that mid- to long-term value support is gradually emerging; investors can watch for subsequent upticks in momentum indicators and continued stability in price structures.

This article aims to help readers identify key signals in the crypto market by understanding the psychological mechanisms behind risk. It discusses how projects with lower consensus tend to crash first, the order of asset sell-offs, and the reflexivity effect that leads to increased market weakness. The piece emphasizes the importance of recognizing market balance and imbalance, identifying potential bottoms, and the behavior of altcoins relative to Bitcoin. Ultimately, it highlights that market bottoming is a process involving multiple stages and signals.

Decoding Bottom Signals: The Crash and Rebound Script of the Crypto Market

Foresight News reports that according to Swissblock monitoring, the market is currently at a bottom stage. The last top-bottom signal was triggered on April 7, leading to a significant market change with BTC rising about 30% within three weeks, and major altcoins increasing between 50% and 120%. Currently, only 8% of altcoins show negative momentum, and historical data suggests that a market bottom forms when this percentage reaches 15% to 25%. A reset to 0% is expected to lead to a rebound in Ethereum and other altcoins.

Analysis: Market bottom signals appear, and the market may rebound.

STUPID INU

‘Misplaced euphoria’: Markets are sleepwalking into a recession amid Iran war oil price shock

Barclays Analysts Update FED Interest Rate Forecast and Announce Expectations for 2026!

ECB's Kazimir: Policy tightening in June is all but inevitable

Jobs data, earnings calls: Crypto Week Ahead

Despite Warsh Replacing Powell at the Fed, Traders See No Rate Cut Coming in June

"Federal Reserve Mouthpiece": Powell's plan to remain as a governor after stepping down may be to continue policy stability and institutional independence.

A senior official at the Bank of Korea said it’s time to consider raising rates, as economic growth appears unlikely to fall much below the bank’s earlier projections, while inflation is likely to exceed its previous forecast.

Barclays: Expects the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady in 2026

The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 92.8%, while the probability of a rate cut is only 7.2%.

Crypto Market Consolidates; Federal Reserve Discusses Conditions for Rate Hike

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