Recently, F9 has been affected by fluctuations in macro risk appetite, leading to a short-term sentiment that is neutral to slightly bearish, with a clear pattern of oscillatory pressure. In the mid- to long-term, institutional sector rotation and the alleviation of macro risks favor a trend-driven reallocation to F9. However, if credit risk spillover persists, the high-beta nature of F9 will limit its valuation recovery. It is recommended to closely track global credit risks and interest rate trajectories, gradually build positions opportunistically, control exposure in the short term, and increase allocation orderly once liquidity signals become clear in the longer term.

A recent review of global key trades reveals that the short-term rally in crypto assets driven by Trump coexists with fragility in credit markets, highlighting the frequent shifts in market risk aversion. During periods of rising risk appetite, high-beta tokens such as F9 often experience brief boosts in line with sector rotation. However, when credit tightening risks emerge, the likelihood increases for risk assets like F9 to come under pressure and retrace. Currently, after multiple tests of support levels, F9 remains actively traded in the short term. If the global financial market once again faces warnings over credit risk or volatility in macro interest rate expectations, F9 may trend towards continued oscillatory pressure, with sentiment likely to remain neutral to slightly bearish in the near term.

Looking ahead to 2026, aggregate position adjustments by hedge funds and institutional investors are set to become major drivers of the market. Reviewing medium- to long-term trading strategies, the frequency of allocation shifts between global defensive stocks, bonds, and crypto assets is increasing, signaling that correlations among asset classes can suddenly strengthen under major macro events. As an innovative token, F9 could see a trend upside if it receives incremental allocations when macro rates find an inflection point or credit risks stabilize. However, continued credit risk spillover would exert sustained discount pressure on high-risk premium assets. Therefore, from a medium-to-long-term perspective, it is advised to monitor macro turning signals and gradually build positions when liquidity windows emerge.

Falcon Nine

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned against reflexively lowering interest rates in response to faster productivity growth, as the phenomenon can sometimes drive up inflation.

Fitch: Reducing the Federal Reserve's balance sheet carries significant risks and is unlikely to be achieved in the short term.

Federal Reserve's Mester: Inflation risks outweigh employment risks, policy rates may remain unchanged

Mousalem: A 2% inflation rate would mean that interest rates can be further lowered.

EUR/GBP: Cross seen creeping higher – Rabobank

Federal Reserve Treasury holdings rise to $4.4 trillion, a new high since July 2024

The Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates, as it could harm economic stability.

Poland’s central bank is set to keep interest rates unchanged for a second month, with policymakers expected to sharpen anti-inflation rhetoric as the conflict in Iran revives long-dormant price pressures.

SoSo Macro | Trump Pauses “Project Freedom”; US April ISM PMI Misses Expectations

Bond traders are betting that the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike exceeds 50%.

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