FLOP is currently benefiting from a short-term liquidity recovery. Improved market sentiment has prompted a rebound from the bottom, with an expected phase repair in the 5-8% range. However, trading volume has not expanded in tandem, limiting the strength of the rebound. In the medium to long term, macro liquidity remains insufficient, leverage inflows are limited, and bullish confidence is weak, with elevated structural risks. It is recommended to participate with controlled positions in the short term, paying attention to the synergy between spot and derivatives performance, and avoiding high-leverage chasing. For the medium to long term, observe capital flows and macro signals; heavy allocations are not advised for now.

Recently, market liquidity has improved, triggering an active phase of buying. Multiple on-chain analysts point out that the improved funding environment and revived trading sentiment have driven a bottoming rebound in price. Although present trading volume remains relatively low, speculative short-term participants are marginally increasing positions, helping prices escape the weak range in the near term. Sentiment is mostly bullish during this phase, but attention should be paid to the limitations imposed by trading volume not expanding alongside the rebound.

Analyst Willy Woo tweeted that he expects a short-term rebound in January due to rising liquidity, signaling a bottoming bounce. However, based on trading volume and fees, he remains bearish on the long-term macro cycle, describing the market as bleak.

Willy Woo: There will be a short-term bottoming rebound in January.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

From transaction fees and total trading volume, macro market liquidity has not persisted in improving and continues to show a gradual shrinking trend. On-chain data indicates that leverage inflow willingness is limited and long-term capital utilization is low, reflecting insufficient confidence in bullish positioning. At the macro level, the overall game structure remains bearish; unless capital inflow improves materially, the medium- to long-term trend may continue to be weak.

Core assets such as Bitcoin have transitioned from a de-leveraging phase to a period of mild expansion, reflecting a gradual recovery in market risk appetite. Current data show that spot buying is dominant, while the pace of leverage increase is slow, reducing the likelihood of large-scale risk events triggered by liquidations. However, if the market experiences a rapid decline in spread or sudden drop in spot demand, it could lead to risks from unverified large-scale quantitative strategies, necessitating close monitoring of the synchronization between open interest in derivatives and price movements.

flopper

Fed Pumps $8.26B Into Markets Overnight, Is Something Bigger Unfolding?

Federal Reserve's Logan should not imply easing policy guidance.

The Federal Reserve's Kashkari and Harker stated that the conflict has changed the interest rate outlook, and maintaining an accommodative stance is no longer appropriate.

Global news you need to know before the US stock market opens on Friday.

Fed's Hammack: Uncertainty around economy, policy path has risen

Two Federal Reserve officials said they dissented over this week’s policy statement because it was no longer appropriate to signal the Fed’s next move was still likely to be an interest-rate cut.

Fed's Kashkari: Large enough price shock could require series of rate hikes

BoE's Pill: Should act more promptly in response to new inflation pressure

Kashkari: Previously thought inflation might decrease, but this year it is necessary to cut interest rates again.

Hamac: Inflation pressure is widespread, energy drives prices higher

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