IWMON is currently in a technical bottom rebound phase, driven by marginal improvements in liquidity. Short-term rebounds offer trading opportunities, with a target range focusing on 5-10% elasticity. However, overall macro liquidity remains tight, funding costs are relatively high, and market depth for derivatives is insufficient, highlighting structural volatility risks. It is recommended to prioritize quick in-and-out short-term trading with strict risk control, while maintaining a defensive stance for the medium to long term and being wary of drawdowns caused by liquidity shocks.

Analysis shows that recent market trading volume has marginally increased in January, providing momentum for a price rebound. Improved liquidity attracts short-term capital participation, with technical bottoming signs appearing at relatively low price levels, thereby increasing the probability of a tentative short-term rebound.

Analyst Willy Woo tweeted that he expects a short-term rebound in January due to rising liquidity, signaling a bottoming bounce. However, based on trading volume and fees, he remains bearish on the long-term macro cycle, describing the market as bleak.

Willy Woo: There will be a short-term bottoming rebound in January.

Although short-term sentiment has warmed up, overall transaction fees and trading volumes have not significantly risen, indicating that underlying market liquidity remains tight. In the medium to long term, rising funding costs and a wait-and-see attitude from institutional investors will suppress sustained price increases, likely maintaining a broad range of fluctuations.

Liquidity in the derivatives sector shows severe segmentation: short-term contracts have sparse transactions, with most contracts seeing no trades within 24 hours, while a few popular contracts account for nearly half of total trading volume. This concentration leads to overall insufficient market depth, causing price-volume imbalances during large trades and exacerbating short-term volatility risks.

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