Currently, POLLUK is constrained by liquidity bottlenecks and insufficient market depth, causing short-term prices to remain volatile and highly sensitive to large inflows of capital. In the medium to long term, the introduction of real estate prediction markets and multi-chain asset integration is expected to bring structural incremental funds to the platform, potentially increasing usage frequency and TVL. It is recommended to closely monitor the platform's progress on novel trading models such as perpetual swaps, as breakthroughs in this direction may become key drivers for improved ecosystem competitiveness and valuation re-rating. In the short term, it is prudent to operate cautiously, paying attention to support and breakthroughs in the 0.9~1.2 range, and patiently await trend opportunities driven by improved liquidity and business expansion.

Recently, POLLUK has exhibited a narrow range of price fluctuations and periodic declines in trading volume in the absence of clear directional cues. Market depth remains low, with a small number of core contracts accounting for the majority of trading volume, making prices highly sensitive to large buy and sell orders. In the short run, as mainstream prediction markets continue to diverge, POLLUK’s short-term trading activity is likely to maintain a cautious and wait-and-see attitude, making rapid price surges unlikely.

The platform has recently launched a real estate prediction market based on daily housing price indices and introduced USDC trading channels on Polygon, providing users with hedging and speculative tools on monthly, quarterly, and annual housing price trends. This innovative approach is expected to attract institutions and individuals seeking to hedge real estate risks, boosting both usage frequency and TVL for POLLUK’s overall ecosystem. In the medium to long term, the large scale and strong demand of the real estate market may bring sustained incremental capital to POLLUK.

Polymarket announced it will launch a real estate prediction market on January 5, enabling users to bet on housing price trends.

Polymarket will launch a real estate prediction market, allowing users to bet on housing price trends.

Polymarket has launched a new real estate prediction market in partnership with Parcl, using Parcl's daily housing price indices as transparent settlement data. This allows users to trade predictions on monthly, quarterly, or annual home price movements in major U.S. cities via USDC on Polygon. The market provides a novel way to hedge or speculate on real estate price risks without selling physical assets, introducing liquidity and real-time pricing to a traditionally illiquid market.

How to trade real estate in prediction markets

Currently, prediction markets rely on order book models and face risks in inventory management and liquidity provision, with non-professional market makers limited in their ability to sustain long-term profits. The industry generally advocates a shift toward perpetual contract-like models to improve capital efficiency and market depth. If POLLUK can pioneer new-generation trading models, it is likely to build higher barriers in an increasingly competitive landscape; otherwise, it may be further marginalized by platforms with superior liquidity.

The article discusses the challenges of market making in prediction markets, highlighting that less than 10% survive until year-end. Unlike AMM-based markets, prediction markets rely on order book models with higher operational complexity, inventory risk, and volatile, jumpy price movements driven by discrete events. Successful market making requires advanced strategies and risk management, often beyond ordinary users' capabilities. Leading platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi invest heavily in liquidity subsidies, creating strong barriers for new entrants and reinforcing dominant players.

Prediction markets are tough: less than 10% may actually survive until the end of the year.

The article critically examines the current state of prediction markets, arguing they have fallen into a "local optimum" trap similar to past tech failures like BlackBerry and Yahoo. While binary options models have gained short-term traction, they suffer from liquidity shortages and low capital efficiency. The author advocates evolving prediction markets toward a perpetual contract model to achieve a truly universal, liquid market, emphasizing the need for radical redesign and humility to overcome structural limitations and realize their full potential.

Falling into a local optimum, market predictions should not stop here.

To address market doubts concerning platform staff and trading behaviors, external research institutions have professionally refuted the data correlation logic involved, weakening the impact of negative rumors. As trust gradually recovers, short-term risk aversion in the market may lessen, providing some price support for POLLUK.

Bubblemaps analysis challenges claims of insider trading on Polymarket, highlighting flaws in linking a Polymarket insider's receipt of about 250 SOL from Coinbase to a prior similar deposit with a 99% correlation. They point out issues like large time gaps, ignoring other assets, and multiple matching cases within the same day. Deposits could stem from various sources or older transactions. They warn that improper use of time analysis can lead to incorrect conclusions.

Bubblemaps: Some analyses targeting Polymarket insiders in the market are flawed.

Jasse Polluk

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