In the current POM market, after the clarification of insider trading allegations, short-term sentiment has been repaired. From a technical perspective, it is necessary to observe whether follow-up trading volume can expand and effectively break out of the 0.38–0.42 range. If volume increases and the price rises, additional positions can be added accordingly; otherwise, there is a need to guard against the risk of a second pullback. In the long term, there is significant differentiation in liquidity: short-term contracts see sparse trading, while macro-political contracts exhibit significant liquidity and attention. Medium- to long-term investors are advised to focus on high-liquidity themes and gradually build positions after overall platform activity rebounds. For short-term trades, it is essential to set strict stop-losses to avoid expanding liquidity risks.

A recent analytical report regarding alleged insider trading within Polymarket points out that previous conclusions based on large time-difference matching methods are riddled with flaws, alleviating some of the market’s concerns over supposed insider trading risks. After the news was released, investor sentiment began to recover. However, since current candlestick data cannot be accessed, technical trends still require verification through trading volume. In the short term, if significant volume emerges and breaks through the upper boundary of the recent consolidation range, a new upward rally led by bulls may be triggered; otherwise, a second pullback due to waning sentiment must still be guarded against.

Bubblemaps analysis challenges claims of insider trading on Polymarket, highlighting flaws in linking a Polymarket insider's receipt of about 250 SOL from Coinbase to a prior similar deposit with a 99% correlation. They point out issues like large time gaps, ignoring other assets, and multiple matching cases within the same day. Deposits could stem from various sources or older transactions. They warn that improper use of time analysis can lead to incorrect conclusions.

Bubblemaps: Some analyses targeting Polymarket insiders in the market are flawed.

An analysis of nearly 300,000 historical Polymarket data points reveals that, in the short term (within 1 day), as many as 63% of contracts see no transactions within 24 hours, indicating a severe lack of liquidity. In contrast, the liquidity of long-term markets (over 30 days) is 45 times greater, primarily concentrated in macro-political contracts. This differentiation in liquidity slows down short-term arbitrage opportunities and increases slippage risk. Meanwhile, the high attention attracted by macro-political markets provides POM with stable value support. Under these circumstances, medium- to long-term holders should focus on the evolution of political contracts, waiting for overall platform trading volume to stabilize before entering in stages. On the other hand, short-term traders should strictly enforce stop-loss discipline to avoid forced liquidation amid liquidity shortages.

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