Since early May, Contract B has experienced a short-term surge in prices driven by the global recovery in risk appetite, accompanied by a sharp increase in trading volume, indicating sentiment-driven market movements. After a correction from highs, the $0.30 support level has proven effective multiple times; holding this level could lead to a renewed rebound, while a breakdown could signal a test of $0.28. In the mid-term, the current market is extremely optimistic, with heightened risks for chasing prices. It is advisable to wait for prices to fall to the $0.55-$0.60 support range or for market sentiment to turn pessimistic before positioning, in order to capture the next round of upward momentum.

Starting May 1st, Contract B's price rapidly surged from around $0.13, reaching a peak of $0.315—a rise of over 140%. Trading volume soared to 314 million units, reflecting a strong influx of bullish capital. This rally closely aligns with the global resurgence of risk appetite, major indices hitting all-time highs, and the institutional ETF inflow spree following Bitcoin’s breakout above $80,000. Market confidence has significantly warmed, creating a classic short-term sentiment-driven market.

Global markets surged as geopolitical tensions eased, with major indices hitting record highs and the Korean KOSPI soaring 6.45%. In tech, semiconductor and AI-related stocks rallied strongly. Bitcoin broke $80,000, driven by institutional ETF inflows, though on-chain activity showed low retail participation. Opinions diverge on Bitcoin's outlook, with some seeing a fragile rally and others bullish due to strong accumulation and ETF demand. TON ecosystem also gained momentum after Telegram's increased involvement.

Trading Moment: Global Asset Frenzy, Bitcoin Breaks $80,000, $84,000 CME Gap Awaiting Refill.

After the initial surge, Contract B entered a period of volatile correction from May 5 to 6, with prices dropping from $0.447 to around $0.339 and trading volume consistently contracting, signaling divergent sentiment at elevated levels. On the macro front, strong US April nonfarm payrolls data heightened expectations for sustained tightening, while increased ETF net outflows put short-term pressure on risk assets. The $0.30 support zone below has held up effectively multiple times; if continued tests are met with stability, conditions for another rebound are present. If this support is broken, caution is warranted for a further retreat towards the $0.28 region.

On May 11, prices surged again to $0.70, accompanied by a resurgence in trading volume, indicating bulls re-entered after the correction and further validated trend continuation. Market sentiment indicators are now in the high range, bordering on extreme greed, suggesting ongoing volatility or sharp swings may persist in the short term. Based on mid-term technical signals such as the 20-day moving average, the optimal entry point often emerges when sentiment is extremely pessimistic, rather than during periods of extreme optimism. Investors should guard against high-level pullbacks and watch for opportunities to position as prices return to the mid-range support area of $0.55-$0.60, to capture the next wave of trend continuation.

According to BIT analyst Markus Thielen's report on May 4, Bitcoin's Greed & Fear Index remains relatively high without signs of decline, indicating potential for further price increases. The 20-day moving average of the index effectively captures market sentiment fluctuations, with optimal investment opportunities usually arising during extreme negative sentiment rather than high levels. Investors are advised to monitor sentiment changes to assess market trends.

Analysis: Bitcoin market sentiment remains high, with potential for further upside.

Baseline

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