Driven by a recent rebound in market risk appetite, BTT has shown a short-term recovery trend. A solid support has formed at 3.20×10⁻⁷–3.22×10⁻⁷ USDT, with the primary upward resistance at 3.30×10⁻⁷ USDT. If trading volumes continue to increase, there is potential to challenge the higher range of 3.35×10⁻⁷–3.36×10⁻⁷ USDT. However, caution is needed regarding the insufficient recovery on the leverage side and the sentiment transmission effect on mid- and small-cap tokens from Bitcoin’s volatility at key levels. It is advisable to buy low and sell high in the short term, follow the trend upon a breakout, and strictly control position sizes before a clear breakthrough of the upper resistance. Medium- to long-term investors should continue to monitor capital flows into mainstream ETFs and changes in macro variables.

As major digital assets warmed up and Bitcoin remained above $74,000 with continued ETF inflows, increased Ethereum network activity and stablecoin supply contributed to overall market risk appetite recovery. Against this backdrop, BTT rebounded from 3.238×10⁻⁷ USDT on April 12 to 3.298×10⁻⁷ USDT on April 16, with the high approaching the upper boundary of the intra-month trading range. This indicates that short-term bulls are repositioning in high-risk small-cap assets driven by improved market sentiment.

In Q1 2026, the Ethereum to Bitcoin price ratio (ETH/BTC) rebounded to 0.0313, a three-month high, indicating a recovery in the crypto market. Ethereum network users grew 82% year-on-year to 284,000, with transaction volume reaching 200.4 million. Stablecoin supply exceeded $180 billion, about 60% of the global market. Analysts suggest that if ETH/BTC closes above 0.035 weekly, it signals continued inflows into Ethereum and high-risk assets. Bitcoin remains above $74,000, supported by over $56 billion inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Analysis: Ethereum-Bitcoin price ratio rebounds, overall crypto market recovers

Bitcoin rose to around $74,935 during the Asian session, up 0.7% in 24 hours and 5.4% weekly, driven mainly by spot buying rather than broad risk appetite. Derivatives markets show caution: perpetual contract funding rates remain negative, open interest declines, and options indicate higher demand for downside protection. This suggests a rebound, not a trend reversal, amid ongoing risk aversion and cautious sentiment despite gains.

Analysis: Bitcoin strengthens along with US stocks, but the options market still bets on downside risk.

On the daily chart, a valid support range of 3.20×10⁻⁷–3.22×10⁻⁷ USDT has been established, with repeated pullbacks being supported by buying interest. The area around 3.30×10⁻⁷ USDT serves as short-term resistance. If this level is broken decisively, the upper band of 3.35×10⁻⁷–3.36×10⁻⁷ USDT could be tested. Meanwhile, daily trading volume has gradually increased from 4.3×10¹¹ to 6.1×10¹¹ BTT during the rebound, indicating rising buyer participation. However, there has not yet been a significant surge in volume or a decisive breakout, so it remains important to watch whether trading activity can continue expanding.

Although short-term sentiment has improved, funding rates for perpetual derivatives remain cautious and there is ongoing demand for downside protection in the options market, indicating the overall leverage side has not been fully restored. If Bitcoin fails to break through and sustain above the key $75,000 level, market risk appetite may decline and the follow-up strength of smaller tokens could be limited. In the medium to long term, continuous attention should be paid to ETF net inflows, macro interest rate expectations, and changes in geopolitical events in order to judge whether BTT can continue to benefit from the expansion of the overall digital asset ecosystem.

Bitcoin futures open interest has halved from $42 billion in October 2025 to $21 billion, indicating a deep market deleveraging. Current low leverage means even small capital inflows can significantly impact prices. Funding rates have fluctuated sharply between -12% and +7%, showing rapid shifts in market sentiment. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, no major liquidations have occurred since early February, reflecting a healthier position structure. Bitcoin awaits a clear directional trend amid heightened market sensitivity.

Analysis: The market has undergone a round of deep deleveraging, and Bitcoin is waiting to choose a direction.

Bitcoin has surpassed a four-week high, rising above $74,000. Analysts identify $75,000 as a critical "volatility release point," where price fluctuations may intensify due to negative gamma effects in the derivatives market. This level coincides with Bitcoin's 100-day moving average, previously a major resistance in January. Breaking above $75,000 could accelerate the uptrend, while a decline may increase downward pressure. The $80,000–$80,600 range marks a positive gamma zone with lower volatility, and the 200-day moving average at $87,519 serves as a long-term reference.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks through a four-week high, key price range may intensify market volatility

BitTorrent

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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