USDY is currently maintaining a narrow range oscillation between 1.1287–1.1311, with market sentiment remaining cautious and signs of volatility exhaustion becoming evident. The credibility of US dollar policy and the liquidity path are the core variables, and short-term disturbances increase the risk of 'false breakouts.' In the medium and long term, macro-geopolitical and regulatory uncertainty premiums persist. In the short term, it is recommended to avoid blindly chasing rallies or steep sell-offs and to focus on high selling and low buying within the range. For medium and long-term allocations, it is advisable to select products with a robust compliance framework that can effectively anchor to the US dollar, patiently waiting for major trend clarity.

From the on-chain transaction volume indicators, there has been recent net selling pressure in spot trading, consistent with capital flows and long-short ratio data, indicating that short-term market sentiment is cautious. Although the derivatives market shows a rise in risk appetite among participants, long-funding rates continue to decline, reflecting a willingness among bulls to actively reduce leverage. Meanwhile, demand for downside protection in the options market has decreased, implying that implied volatility is at a neutral level. These signals align with the volatility exhaustion reflected in daily K-lines with low amplitude and small bodies. The repeated oscillation within the 1.1287–1.1311 price range suggests that neither bulls nor bears have a clear advantage at current levels, likely extending the consolidation pattern.

Glassnode's latest report highlights intensified market tug-of-war with spot CVD turning negative, indicating increased selling pressure and emerging bearish sentiment. Futures show rising risk appetite but declining long funding rates, reflecting growing bearishness. Options suggest reduced downside protection demand and neutralizing volatility. Meanwhile, US spot ETFs see rising MVRV and inflows, boosting investor interest and supporting cautious optimism amid stable long-term holder confidence.

Glassnode: Market bullish and bearish struggles intensify, spot CVD turns negative indicating increased selling pressure, but ETF inflows provide support.

The core market focus has shifted from pure interest rate differentials or safe-haven demand to a contest between US dollar policy credibility and liquidity pathways. Under multiple uncertain factors, the US dollar continues to exhibit high volatility, causing obvious disturbances in short-term capital flows in dollar-denominated assets, but failing to establish a sustained directional trend. For USDY, while sporadic fluctuations in the dollar have occurred recently, its dollar-anchored nature has prevented price decoupling. Instead, the disturbance from false breakouts has reinforced the range-bound feature, warning traders to be alert to risks from sudden gaps and liquidity mismatches.

The market is shifting focus from risk events to how the US dollar prices these events, entering a phase of exchange rate-driven risk redistribution. The dollar's core drivers now hinge on policy credibility and liquidity paths rather than just interest rate differentials or safe-haven demand. With geopolitical tensions and inflation influencing policy, the dollar remains volatile without a clear trend, impacting Bitcoin's price action by amplifying false breakouts and liquidity shifts rather than driving a sustained trend.

Bitunix analyst: The US dollar's pricing power swings between policy credibility and the outcome of the war, with the market entering a risk redistribution phase dominated by exchange rates.

From a macro perspective, imminent physical crude oil supply shortages and unresolved geopolitical risks, coupled with uncertainty in major legislative processes (such as the CLARITY Act), inject long-term uncertainty premiums into the overall market. Meanwhile, frequent decentralized finance security incidents and increasingly diversified user geographical distribution present higher requirements for building trust in the stablecoin ecosystem. In this context, USDY, if leveraging a sound compliance framework and risk hedging mechanisms, to maintain a strong anchor with the US dollar, is more likely to win holders' confidence in the medium and long term and reinforce its position as a store of value and transaction medium.

Ondo US Dollar Yield

The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Tuesday, setting up a communication challenge for Governor Kazuo Ueda as the foundering yen hovers near levels that have prompted past interventions.

The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 100%, while the probability of a rate cut in June is only 4.7%.

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The US Treasury market is focusing on the Federal Reserve meeting, with the probability of a rate cut by the end of the year rising to 40%.

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Netanyahu orders IDF to intensify attacks on Hezbollah, ceasefire in doubt

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Trump evacuated from White House dinner amid US-Iran tensions

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USDY price today is 1.13, with a live price change of 0.22 in the last 24 hours. Convert, buy, sell and trade USDY on Bybit-eu.

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