Against the backdrop of a recovering macro risk appetite, RED is finding initial support at $0.13, but the medium-term weakness persists. Caution is required regarding the potential resonance between Fed liquidity tightening and market volatility. If RED breaks above $0.13 with higher volume and stabilizes, a trend reversal opportunity can be closely watched, with key resistance at the $0.145 level. If it falls below $0.128, a short-term retest of $0.12 may occur. Considering the net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs and divergence in the derivatives market, it is recommended to manage position sizes and respond dynamically to the resonance of pullbacks and rebounds, with a focus on tracking mainstream capital movements and changes in market risk premium.

Recently, easing geopolitical tensions have significantly reduced risk aversion, spurring a rebound in US stocks, especially the AI sector, and driving synchronized recoveries in major crypto assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. Overall risk appetite has improved markedly. Against the backdrop of high oil prices, the Fed’s hawkish comments suggest liquidity may exit more quickly; continued inflationary pressures could pose headwinds for risk assets. In the short term, market sentiment is buoyed by 'risk asset resonance,' but in the medium and long term, caution is warranted as monetary tightening may intensify volatility.

BitMart Research Weekly highlights easing US-Iran tensions and a hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve, driving a rebound in risk assets including crypto. US stocks, especially AI-related sectors, show strong recovery amid geopolitical risks. Inflation data signals potential upward pressure if oil prices stay high. Crypto markets follow US stocks with BTC and ETH leading, while altcoins remain volatile. Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy’s increased BTC holdings indicate long-term confidence.

BitMart Research Institute Weekly Hotspot Analysis: US-Iran Easing Combined with Fed's Hawkish Shift, Crypto Market Follows Rebound to Form a Bottom

After Bitcoin broke through key price levels, the negative gamma effect in the derivatives market began to amplify volatility. Failure to hold the $75,000 level could increase short-term pullback pressure, while the $78,000–$80,600 level is a dense positive gamma area; a breakout there may lead to a relatively steady upward phase. Meanwhile, spot ETFs continue to attract funds and the MVRV indicator is rising, reflecting strong long-term institutional buying interest, which contrasts with weakening funding rates in the futures market. This indicates a classic sentiment battle between hedging and bullish speculation.

Bitcoin has surpassed a four-week high, rising above $74,000. Analysts identify $75,000 as a critical "volatility release point," where derivative market negative gamma effects may amplify price fluctuations. This level coincides with Bitcoin's 100-day moving average, a key resistance in January. Breaking $75,000 could accelerate an uptrend, while a pullback may increase downward pressure. The $80,000–$80,600 range is a positive gamma zone with lower volatility, and the 200-day moving average at $87,519 serves as a long-term reference.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks four-week high, key price range may intensify market volatility

Bitcoin recently surpassed $75,000 for the first time in 73 days, facing resistance near $78,000 with $74,000 seen as a critical support level for further gains. Market views diverge: bears cite weak macro liquidity and reliance on short-covering, while bulls highlight strong whale accumulation and potential breakthroughs above key moving averages. The broader market shows mixed signals amid geopolitical developments and fluctuating investor sentiment.

Trading moment: BTC encountered resistance at 78K, and it needs to hold 74K to aim for a breakthrough.

On the daily chart, RED surged with high volume on April 6 and then entered a pullback channel, establishing short-term support at the $0.1318 low on April 20. Trading volume has continued to decline from the peak, indicating more cautious trading between bulls and bears. The price is currently below major mid-term moving averages, suggesting a bearish trend. If the $0.13 mark holds with an accompanying volume rebound, this could signal a trend reversal; conversely, a heavy-volume break below $0.128 increases the likelihood of a retest of the $0.12 area. In addition, sustained positioning by institutions via Bitcoin ETFs provides marginal support for overall risk assets and may have a spillover effect on RED—but close monitoring of overall capital flows is needed.

RED TOKEN

Gold: Inflation and Fed risks cap upside – ING

ECB: Lagarde Signals No Near-Term Rate Move – Danske Bank

Nikkei: Bank of Japan to hold rates steady in April

Fed Chair Nominee Kevin Warsh Vows Fed Independence Despite Trump’s Push for Rate Cuts

The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April has reached 100%.

US Treasuries are still pricing in a war in the Middle East that other asset classes have shrugged off, setting up a drop in yields as they catch up, according to Bank of America.

Lagarde: Broad fiscal support will force the European Central Bank to raise key interest rates.

Iran accuses US of attacking commercial vessel, escalating Strait tensions

Pentagon reports 415 US troops wounded in Iran, indicating ground involvement

US seizes MV Touska in Hormuz, linked to Iranian missile shipments

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