The current US stock market bull trend is clear, with the S&P 500 index approaching 7,000 points and its consecutive rising cycle significantly extended. As a highly correlated asset, SPDR is expected to benefit and is likely to maintain a moderately strong oscillating trend in the future. Investors should be alert to short-term sentiment corrections triggered by changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate path and personnel shifts. If the minutes are dovish or the new chairperson maintains a stable stance, risk appetite could be reignited, and SPDR may resume its rally. It is recommended that investors follow the main bullish trend, consider buying on dips within a range, and pay attention to support below 6,600 points and the upward momentum to break through 7,000 points. Additionally, in response to sector rotation, moderately lower technology weighting and increase allocation to financial and energy sectors can enhance portfolio flexibility.

Latest data shows that the US stock market is near historic highs with the S&P 500 index less than 1% away from the 7,000-point threshold and is poised for an eighth consecutive monthly gain, marking the longest such streak since 2017–2018. As a synthetic token highly correlated with the S&P 500 index, SPDR naturally benefits from this bull market. In the absence of significant external negative shocks, bullish momentum dominates, and SPDR prices are expected to maintain sideways consolidation before continuing upward.

Market attention has shifted to the Federal Reserve meeting minutes and the potential timing for interest rate cuts, while news that Trump may nominate a new Fed chair has added to interest rate path uncertainty. If the minutes release a mildly hawkish signal or the new chair is inclined to be cautious, this could intensify short-term upward pressure on US Treasury yields and dampen some risk appetite; otherwise, it may spark renewed enthusiasm for risk assets. SPDR may experience volatility during this period, but the overall trend remains bullish due to the ongoing bull market, with short-term pullbacks possible.

Although the broader market maintains its upward trend, gains in the technology sector have slowed, and capital is rotating into sectors with more reasonable valuations. Since SPDR token weights mirror those of the S&P 500, further rotation may weigh on tech-heavy assets while benefiting financials, energy, and similar sectors. Investors can flexibly adjust their positions according to the token's sector composition to capture the differentiated returns brought by sector rotation.

SpiderSwap

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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