Currently, VELO is dominated by selling pressure in both the spot and derivatives markets in the short term. Key support levels have been breached and liquidity is shrinking, indicating heightened downside risk for the near-term trend. It is recommended to focus on whether the $0.00312 area can stabilize and watch for signs of capital inflow. In the long run, institutional and core holders’ allocation intentions remain intact, and valuation is at a historical low. Should ecosystem developments or positive partnerships occur, a phase of value recovery may follow. From an operational perspective, strict position control is required in the short term. Key areas to monitor are macro liquidity and protocol security dynamics. Gradual accumulation on dips is advisable.

On-chain data shows that the cumulative volume delta (CVD) for spot has turned from positive to negative, indicating increased overall market selling pressure. According to the daily chart, VELO has been in a downward oscillation since the early April high, repeatedly losing key support at $0.00325 and $0.00312. Although trading volumes occasionally spike, they have not led to effective rebounds, reflecting the dominance of bears in the short term. Short-term investors are becoming more cautious, waiting for support levels to hold again or for signs of capital inflow before expecting a shift in the weak trend.

Glassnode's latest report highlights intensified market tug-of-war with spot CVD turning negative, indicating increased selling pressure and emerging bearish sentiment. Futures show rising risk appetite but declining long funding rates, reflecting growing bearishness. Options suggest reduced downside protection demand and neutralizing volatility. Meanwhile, US spot ETFs see rising MVRV and inflows, boosting investor interest and supporting cautious optimism amid stable long-term holder confidence.

Glassnode: Market bullish and bearish struggles intensify, spot CVD turns negative indicating increased selling pressure, but ETF inflows provide support.

While risk appetite in the futures market is on the rise, long funding rates continue to decline, indicating that the cost of going long is increasing and bullish momentum is insufficient. Such structural divergences typically accompany increased speculative activities but rarely translate into substantive price support. VELO’s derivatives market may also be experiencing intensified short positioning, while spot trading volume continues to shrink, further evidencing insufficient short-term liquidity and the increased possibility of price volatility.

Despite short-term pressure on sentiment, large institutions and long-term holders within the market have not altered their desire to allocate to quality assets. US stock spot ETF data shows both the MVRV indicator and capital inflows are trending upward, suggesting that funds are still seeking resilient targets. With VELO’s ecosystem layout in decentralized finance, its long-term risk-reward potential still exists. The current price has retraced to yearly lows; if future ecosystem progress or major partnership news emerges, there will be substantial room for value recovery.

Recently, global macro factors such as physical oil supply tightness and geopolitical risks are unlikely to ease in the short term. At the same time, frequent DeFi security incidents and regulatory uncertainties have intensified the market’s cautious stance on high-risk assets. For VELO, protocol security audits, compliance progress, and the implementation of ecosystem projects will be key variables to boost market confidence. Additionally, macro liquidity conditions and inflation expectations will continue to influence crypto market volatility. Investors should closely monitor how related developments substantively impact market capital flows.

Velo

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