Driven by the recovery of macro risk appetite and Bitcoin's momentum, WAVES’ short-term rebound momentum has strengthened. Currently, it is trading at $0.4228, facing resistance at $0.44 and key support in the $0.40–0.405 range. Although market sentiment has marginally improved, cautious signals in the derivatives market remain, potentially limiting the upside. Strategy suggestion: In the short term, focus on the effectiveness of a break above $0.44; if there is a pullback, the $0.40 area is an important dip-buying zone. In the medium and long term, portfolio positioning should be flexibly adjusted in conjunction with overall crypto market liquidity and the macro environment to prevent risk from buying at the top.

Recently, both global stock markets and Bitcoin have strengthened, with the Nasdaq up over 12% and the S&P 500 rebounding nearly 10% within a month, significantly lifting market risk appetite. This round of rebound is closely related to improved expectations for Middle East peace negotiations, which have alleviated fears of extreme supply shocks. Macro risk pricing is shifting from 'extreme risk aversion' to 'controllable game.' This sentiment shift provides marginal benefits for crypto assets, boosting the follow-up enthusiasm of most altcoins including WAVES in the short term.

The Nasdaq 100 has surged about 12% since March 27, marking its longest winning streak since 2021, while the S&P 500 has rebounded nearly 10%. Bitcoin also hit a new high above $76,000, with on-chain data indicating bullish behavior. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and negative funding rates in crypto, markets seem to be pricing in an early end to the Iran conflict, supported by upcoming peace talks and improving regional conditions.

The Nasdaq is about to hit a new high, is the bull market back?

Market focus has shifted from "war escalation" to "effective risk pricing." Improved US-Iran negotiations ease extreme supply shock fears, but US sanctions keep risks "controllably suppressed." Energy prices show mixed signals: WTI's premium over Brent declines, yet tight supply and OPEC cuts maintain upward pressure. Businesses delay investments amid uncertainty, causing lagged economic effects. Markets face asymmetric pricing amid macro risk easing but unresolved structural pressures, with liquidity-driven volatility persisting, including in crypto assets like BTC.

Bitunix Analyst: Energy supply risks have shifted to a controllable state but are not yet resolved. Policy and corporate actions are beginning to show delayed responses, and the market has entered a phase of asymmetric pricing.

Recently, Bitcoin broke above the $74,000 line, approaching the key level near its 100-day moving average and forming a 'volatility release point' in the derivatives market. Despite active spot buying, perpetual contract funding rates remain negative, and demand for downside protection in the options market has increased, showing that while overall sentiment has improved, a cautious atmosphere persists. This structural momentum and divergence in capital conditions may limit the sustainability of most altcoin rebounds in the short term.

Bitcoin rose to around $74,935 during the Asian session, up 0.7% in 24 hours and 5.4% weekly, driven mainly by spot buying rather than broad risk appetite. Derivatives markets show caution: perpetual contract funding rates remain negative, open interest declines, and options indicate higher demand for downside protection. This suggests a rebound, not a trend reversal, amid ongoing risk aversion and cautious sentiment despite gains.

Analysis: Bitcoin strengthens along with US stocks, but the options market still bets on downside risk.

Bitcoin has surpassed a four-week high, rising above $74,000. Analysts identify $75,000 as a critical "volatility release point," where price fluctuations may intensify due to negative gamma effects in the derivatives market. This level coincides with Bitcoin's 100-day moving average, previously a major resistance in January. Breaking above $75,000 could accelerate the uptrend, while a decline may increase downward pressure. The $80,000–$80,600 range marks a positive gamma zone with lower volatility, and the 200-day moving average at $87,519 serves as a long-term reference.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks through a four-week high, key price range may intensify market volatility

On the daily chart, WAVES began rebounding from around $0.405 in mid-April, gaining over 4% in the past five days with trading volume moderately increasing, and short-term moving averages have formed a golden cross. The current price is at $0.4228, facing resistance at the prior high of $0.44, with the $0.40–0.405 region acting as primary support. If bullish sentiment continues, a breakout above resistance may lead to further upside; if risk aversion returns, a pullback to confirm support may occur.

Overall, macro and Bitcoin’s upward momentum provides WAVES with a short-term rebound opportunity, but cautious sentiment in the derivatives market and key technical resistance will likely moderate the speed of its advance. In the medium and long term, attention should focus on liquidity across the crypto market and ongoing changes in the macro liquidity environment. If risk appetite continues to improve, WAVES may have a new round of gains; if the market turns cautious again, new support confirmation should be sought at the $0.40 level.

Waves

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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WAVES price today is 0.43, with a live price change of 1.36 in the last 24 hours. Convert, buy, sell and trade WAVES on Bybit-eu.

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