Driven by the recent recovery in liquidity, XSWAP has seen short-term market sentiment improve, with trading volume and fee indicators showing signs of bottoming out and rebounding. The current price remains within a low-range interval (referencing the historical volatility median; downside risk is limited, and the rebound zone is focused on the 0.87 to 1.12 range upper boundary). However, whether the improvement in liquidity can translate into sustained buying remains to be seen, depending on capital flows and major traders’ movements. If the trading volume boost is not sustained, the strength of the rally will be limited, and there is a probability of a pullback after a brief rise. In the medium to long term, the prediction market sector continues to see increasing industry concentration, with liquidity and user resources gravitating toward a few leading platforms. XSWAP faces high inventory risks and uncertain growth prospects. It is advised to consider short-term, small-position trades to capitalize on a rebound, but long-term allocation should be cautious, focusing on tangible progress in differentiated services and user stickiness; otherwise, it will be hard to break out of the current stock pattern.

Recently, market liquidity has picked up, helping restore investor sentiment. Stimulated by improved liquidity, trading volume and fee levels have shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, with short-term funds likely to initiate tentative long positions. Additionally, most analysts point out that the current price is in a relatively low range; if increased trading volume persists, this would help confirm a short-term bottom. However, caution is needed, as a liquidity recovery that fails to translate into continued buying will quickly cap any rebound, creating the risk of a sharp rise followed by a pullback.

Analyst Willy Woo tweeted that he expects a short-term rebound in January due to rising liquidity, signaling a bottoming bounce. However, based on trading volume and fees, he remains bearish on the long-term macro cycle, describing the market as bleak.

Willy Woo: There will be a short-term bottoming rebound in January.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

If XSWAP focuses on the prediction market, it will face dual challenges of low industry survival rates and highly concentrated liquidity. Statistics show that over 90% of prediction markets fail to survive by year-end, and new entrants face inventory risk and one-sided market swings. Meanwhile, the trend of liquidity subsidies among platforms is becoming increasingly prominent, with a large share of the market concentrated among a few leading players, and a handful of high-quality contracts accounting for more than half of total trading volume. This means new platforms face considerable uncertainties in realizing long-term value; if they are unable to establish differentiated competitiveness or continue attracting core users, sustained growth will be hard to achieve.

The article discusses the challenges of market making in prediction markets, highlighting that less than 10% survive until year-end. Unlike AMM-based markets, prediction markets rely on order book models with higher operational complexity, inventory risk, and volatile, jumpy price movements driven by discrete events. Successful market making requires advanced strategies and risk management, often beyond ordinary users' capabilities. Leading platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi invest heavily in liquidity subsidies, creating strong barriers for new entrants and reinforcing dominant players.

Prediction markets are tough: less than 10% may actually survive until the end of the year.

XSwap

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The European Central Bank's inclination to raise interest rates has strengthened, with Lagarde emphasizing increased risks.

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