ZEN has benefited from continued ETF capital inflows and an easing of geopolitical tensions, leading to a marked improvement in market sentiment and short-term rebound momentum. However, upcoming central bank policy meetings will heighten macro volatility risk, and investors should beware of a sentiment reversal. Technically, $5.8 is a key support level; holding above this may continue the rebound, while a breakout above $6.35 would further confirm the trend. If $5.8 is breached, attention should be paid to the risk area of $5.5–$5.2. It is recommended to focus on policy developments and the defense of support levels in the short term, while in the medium-to-long term, vigilance is required regarding macro and industry compliance risks, and defensive position management should be strengthened.

Recently, major spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows of more than $800 million for the fourth consecutive week, accompanied by an easing of geopolitical tensions that has led to a rise in overall market risk appetite. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has rebounded from the 'fear' range to a neutral level, reflecting a clear recovery in investor confidence. As a small- to mid-cap token, ZEN is highly sensitive to overall market sentiment, and its price has already reflected the bullish effects of this wave of capital inflows in the sharp rally on April 9–10.

This week, several major central banks will hold intensive interest rate decision meetings. Although the consensus expectation is for rates to remain unchanged, the assessment of the economic impact of current and future geopolitical conflicts will be a key focus. Market sensitivity to monetary policy statements has significantly increased, which may trigger greater volatility in risk assets in the short term. Against this backdrop, ZEN may experience sharp price swings in line with macro sentiment, and investors should closely monitor market reactions following key policy statements.

On the daily chart, after retreating from the $6.35 high, ZEN has found support multiple times around $5.8, forming a consolidation pattern between the 4720 and 5830 ranges. Trading volume has declined steadily since hitting a high on April 11, indicating weakened momentum for further rallies. In the mid-term, if support at $5.8 holds, a second rebound may be launched based on this range bottom; if it fails, there is risk of further declines to $5.5 or even $5.2. At the same time, global macro factors such as tight oil supply and the security and compliance challenges facing decentralized finance projects add uncertainty to the long-term value evaluation of the token.

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The Bank of Japan left its rate unchanged in a split vote that increased the likelihood of a hike in June. But the weak yen saw only a brief respite as Governor Kazuo Ueda cast doubt on the economy’s outlook.

Institution: Bank of Japan's "policy reaction function" has changed, yen movement becomes key to rate hikes.

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