Driven by a recovery in overall market sentiment and a Bitcoin rebound, B3’s recent trading volume and price have both surged, with short-term sentiment improving significantly and the 0.00031 area forming effective support. Currently, Bitcoin is in a high-volatility resistance zone, with both upward momentum and risk coexisting. B3's medium-term performance highly depends on whether Bitcoin can remain firmly above its 100-day moving average. Strategy recommendation: Pay close attention to whether B3 can sustain a breakout above 0.00037 with increased volume. If volume supports the move, short-term positions may be considered on dips with a target range at 0.00038. If volume falls back, beware of the risk of a retracement down to the 0.00032 range. Manage your position size and stay flexible amid market sentiment fluctuations.

Recently, geopolitical tensions in the market have eased somewhat. Dialogue has restarted between Israel and Lebanon, and the de-escalation in the Middle East has prompted renewed capital interest in risk assets. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin kicked off a new round of gains, rising over 5% for the week and leading related altcoins higher. As a small- to mid-cap token with relatively ample liquidity, B3 saw its trading volume surge nearly 20% during the same period, along with an upward price breakout, leading to a clear improvement in short-term sentiment.

Bitcoin surged past $72,000, rising about 3% to approximately $72,300, driven by easing tensions in the Middle East. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reportedly initiated talks with Lebanon, supported by Trump's call for reduced Israeli military actions to maintain a ceasefire. Bitcoin's 24-hour gain of around 2% outpaced other major cryptocurrencies and coincided with a rebound in U.S. stocks and a drop in oil prices. Bitcoin is increasingly decoupling from tech stocks, influenced more by geopolitical and risk-averse factors.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks through $72,000, Middle East ceasefire expectations boost market sentiment.

BitMart Research Weekly highlights easing US-Iran tensions and a hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve, driving a rebound in risk assets including crypto. US stocks, especially AI-related sectors, show strong recovery amid geopolitical risks. Inflation data signals potential upward pressure if oil prices stay high. Crypto markets follow US stocks with BTC and ETH leading, while altcoins remain volatile. Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy’s increased BTC holdings indicate long-term confidence.

BitMart Research Institute Weekly Hotspot Analysis: US-Iran Easing Combined with Fed's Hawkish Shift, Crypto Market Follows Rebound to Form a Bottom

Bitcoin rose to around $74,935 during the Asian session, up 0.7% in 24 hours and 5.4% weekly, driven mainly by spot buying rather than broad risk appetite. Derivatives markets show caution: perpetual contract funding rates remain negative, open interest declines, and options indicate higher demand for downside protection. This suggests a rebound, not a trend reversal, amid ongoing risk aversion and cautious sentiment despite gains.

Analysis: Bitcoin strengthens along with US stocks, but the options market still bets on downside risk.

Bitcoin is currently trading near the upper end of a historic value zone and close to its 100-day moving average. Multiple resistance levels are converging, meaning that both large holders' ranges and the negative gamma in derivatives could lead to intensified volatility. At this stage, B3 remains highly correlated with Bitcoin. Its medium-term trend may gain support if Bitcoin stabilizes, but if Bitcoin falls below its long-term upward trend line, the altcoin sector may face another round of volatility. B3 absorbed a wave of positions during Bitcoin's high-volume rebound; for the medium-term, it is critical to monitor whether Bitcoin can maintain its current high-volatility zone.

Analyst Ali highlights a key "value range" for Bitcoin between $63,111 and $70,685, where significant holdings create strong support. Falling below $63,111 may lead to a liquidity void. Bitcoin is also nearing a crucial decade-long upward trend line around $56,000–$60,000, historically a buildup phase before major rallies. Current volatility could represent a generational entry opportunity based on long-term trends and on-chain liquidity.

Analyst: Key "value range" for Bitcoin emerges, current volatility may present a cycle-level entry opportunity.

Bitcoin has surpassed a four-week high, rising above $74,000. Analysts identify $75,000 as a critical "volatility release point," where derivative market negative gamma effects may amplify price fluctuations. This level coincides with Bitcoin's 100-day moving average, a key resistance in January. Breaking $75,000 could accelerate an uptrend, while a pullback may increase downward pressure. The $80,000–$80,600 range is a positive gamma zone with lower volatility, and the 200-day moving average at $87,519 serves as a long-term reference.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks four-week high, key price range may intensify market volatility

On the daily chart, B3 has established solid support around the 0.00031 level, with multiple tests failing to break lower. The recent high resides in the 0.00037–0.00038 range, which is the focus of the current short-term bull-bear tug-of-war. On April 16 and 17, trading volume surged significantly, pushing the price quickly from 0.000306 to 0.000369, reflecting an attempt by bulls to take control. If B3 holds above 0.00037 next, the bullish momentum could continue; if volume drops again, beware of possible congestion and a pullback toward the 0.00032 area.

B3 (Base)

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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