BTCP's current market sentiment is warming up, but effective incremental data remains to be verified, maintaining a cautiously optimistic outlook in the short term. At present, the price has broken through an important psychological barrier, easing the profit-taking pressure for holders and laying the foundation for a rebound. Close attention should be paid to whether the closing price can stabilize above the short-term holding cost line and the $100,000 threshold—once breached, it will have a significant impact on the market's long-short structure. The options market notably bets on volatility within the $80,000–$120,000 range, with implied volatility remaining high. In terms of strategy, it is advised to focus on the lower bound of $86,000–$89,000 and the resistance at $95,000–$98,000, and to dynamically adjust stop-loss and take-profit to guard against liquidation and sudden market swings.

Recent on-chain data and market feedback show initial signs of recovery for crypto assets overall, with particularly strengthened buying momentum during Asian trading hours and prices steadily surpassing key psychological barriers. Year-end tax loss harvesting and policy easing expectations in certain countries are jointly stimulating market sentiment, prompting bulls to enter actively. However, as effective data still needs to accumulate for confirmation, caution against pullback risks is advised in the short term to avoid chasing highs and buying at the top.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

QCP's market analysis on January 5 highlights a strengthening crypto market in Asia, with Bitcoin and Ethereum surpassing $92,000 and $3,100 respectively, driven by US actions in Venezuela, year-end tax-loss trading, and rising crypto legislation expectations. Speculation about Venezuela holding significant "shadow Bitcoin reserves" and using USDT in oil trades could make it a major sovereign BTC holder. Options data show a bullish shift, with increased call options and straddle strategies indicating short covering and bets on upward volatility.

QCP: Venezuela Situation and Options Funding Resonance Strengthen Bullish Expectations in the Crypto Market

Currently, the coin price is below the average holding cost for short-term holders, resulting in most short-term positions being in unrealized losses and significantly suppressing short-term selling pressure. Meanwhile, with decreased concentration of chips, the price rising alongside incremental funds suggests a foundation for continued rebound. However, if the price approaches the $100,000 threshold, those unrealized losses may turn into breakevens and trigger profit-taking, potentially changing the supply-demand dynamics. Close attention should be paid to whether the closing price can break through and remain above the short-term holder cost line to determine the next phase of long-short contest.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel notes that Bitcoin's current rise benefits from reduced selling pressure by short-term holders, who are currently at a loss since BTC trades below their average acquisition cost. This limits their profit-taking potential and suppresses sell pressure, explaining price resilience despite pullbacks. However, if BTC reaches $100,000, short-term holders may break even and start selling, creating price pressure. A key bullish signal is BTC closing above the short-term holders' realized price.

Analyst: The current BTC rise benefits from reduced selling pressure; if it reaches $100K, it will face selling from short-term holders.

On January 4, analyst Murphy noted that BTC's chip concentration within 5% of the January 1 price dropped from 14.9% to 14.5% by January 3, while BTC's price slowly rose. Historical data suggests that a decline in concentration amid rising prices indicates continued price increase. Significant BTC accumulation at $87,000 supports a range of $92,000-$104,000. Technical signals suggest a rebound is more likely than a false breakout unless BTC falls below $87,000.

Analysis: BTC chip concentration decreases, chip structure support is effective, rebound probability is higher than a false breakout followed by further decline.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel noted that the current BTC price rise benefits from reduced selling pressure by short-term holders, who are currently at a loss since BTC trades below their average acquisition cost. This loss limits their selling potential, easing downward pressure. However, if BTC reaches $100,000, short-term holders may break even and start selling, creating price pressure. A key bullish signal would be BTC closing above the short-term holders' realized price.

Large-scale straddle option layouts indicate that some institutions and large holders remain highly vigilant about potential severe volatility in the coming months, with simultaneous bets on $120,000 and $80,000 strike prices reflecting heightened expectations for substantial market swings. Meanwhile, bullish sentiment in the Asia-Pacific market is pushing up the trading volume of related call options, with bullish confidence building. However, hedging demand is also driving up the volatility premium, and implied volatility is expected to stay elevated in the short term.

A trader on Deribit has invested approximately $2.36 million in a "straddle" options strategy on Bitcoin, purchasing 660 call options at a $120,000 strike price for about $860,000 and 660 put options at an $80,000 strike price for about $1.5 million. Both sets expire on March 27, 2026, indicating the trader expects significant BTC price volatility by the end of March, with potential upward movement of $28,000 or downward movement of $12,000.

Data: A trader invested $2.36M to buy 660 BTC, 120K call options, and 80K put options.

At various price levels, the market's tug-of-war over liquidation is evident: if the price falls below the $86,000–$89,000 lower bound, billions of dollars in long liquidations will be triggered, intensifying short-term selling pressure. Conversely, a decisive breakout above the $95,000–$98,000 resistance area would initiate over a billion dollars in short liquidations, fueling further price surges. Therefore, short-term traders should set reasonable stop-loss and take-profit strategies at these critical levels and dynamically adjust positions to cope with severe volatility caused by sudden liquidation waves.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC falls below $89,266, the total long position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $2.396 billion. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $98,140, the total short position liquidation on major CEXs will reach $1.245 billion.

Data: If BTC falls below $89,266, the total long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $2.396 billion.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC falls below $86,724, the total long position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $1.309 billion. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $95,466, the total short position liquidation on major CEX will reach $1.013 billion.

Data: If BTC falls below $86,724, the total long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $1.309 billion.

Bitcoin Pro

The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Tuesday, setting up a communication challenge for Governor Kazuo Ueda as the foundering yen hovers near levels that have prompted past interventions.

The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 100%, while the probability of a rate cut in June is only 4.7%.

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The US Treasury market is focusing on the Federal Reserve meeting, with the probability of a rate cut by the end of the year rising to 40%.

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