The current main chip concentration of BTCV has slightly declined while the price is slowly climbing, indicating that the bullish trend continues. The key chip support is at $87,000; as long as this level is firmly held, short-term downside risk is controllable. Attention should be paid to the large liquidation thresholds within the $86,000–$89,300 range; a breakdown could trigger intensified declines and position risks below require strict control. Conversely, if the price continues to hold above $87,000 and breaks through the dense short region of $95,000–$98,000, it may trigger a large-scale short squeeze leading to rapid upward movement. With bullish sentiment dominating the derivatives market, along with improved holding structures and ETF capital flows, it is recommended to seize buying opportunities near the lower boundary of the range and promptly add positions upon breakout of key resistance levels. Manage liquidation risks and flexibly respond to potential sharp volatility.

Recently, main position concentration has declined amid rising prices. Data shows chip holdings near price levels decreased from 14.9% to 14.5%, while prices still slowly climbed. This state commonly signals continued bullish market trends. Currently, important chips are concentrated around the $87,000 level, laying a foundation for further upward moves. At the same time, holding costs remain below critical price levels, preventing short-term holders from selling heavily, which further supports price momentum.

On January 4, analyst Murphy noted that BTC's chip concentration within 5% of the January 1 price dropped from 14.9% to 14.5% by January 3, while BTC's price slowly rose. Historical data suggests that a decline in concentration amid rising prices indicates continued price increase. Significant BTC accumulation at $87,000 supports a range of $92,000-$104,000. Technical signals suggest a rebound is more likely than a false breakout unless BTC falls below $87,000.

Analysis: BTC chip concentration decreases, chip structure support is effective, rebound probability is higher than a false breakout followed by further decline.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel notes that Bitcoin's current rise benefits from reduced selling pressure by short-term holders, who are currently at a loss since BTC trades below their average acquisition cost. This limits their profit-taking potential and suppresses sell pressure, explaining price resilience despite pullbacks. However, if BTC reaches $100,000, short-term holders may break even and start selling, creating price pressure. A key bullish signal is BTC closing above the short-term holders' realized price.

Analyst: The current BTC rise benefits from reduced selling pressure; if it reaches $100K, it will face selling from short-term holders.

Multiple large liquidation boundaries are concentrated within the $86,000–$89,300 range. A breakdown would trigger $10+ billion-scale long liquidations, potentially leading to swift downward moves in the short term. However, if the price holds firmly at $87,000, heavy short covering pressure exists at the $95,000–$98,000 range; a breakout could trigger billions of dollars in short liquidations and accelerate price uptrend. Thus, in this 'abyss' boundary tug-of-war, any decisive breakout may result in severe volatility.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC falls below $89,266, the total long position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $2.396 billion. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $98,140, the total short position liquidation on major CEXs will reach $1.245 billion.

Data: If BTC falls below $89,266, the total long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $2.396 billion.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC falls below $86,724, the total long position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $1.309 billion. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $95,466, the total short position liquidation on major CEX will reach $1.013 billion.

Data: If BTC falls below $86,724, the total long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $1.309 billion.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC falls below $86,170, the total long position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $1.229 billion. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $95,088, the total short position liquidation on major CEXs will reach $1.225 billion.

Data: If BTC falls below $86,170, the total long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $1.229 billion.

Since the beginning of the year, demand in the Asia-Pacific region has strengthened, ETF reduction pace has slowed significantly, and bullish confidence in the derivatives market has increased. The deployment of call options and straddle strategies has noticeably grown, reflecting short-term bullish institutional expectations. Meanwhile, the average cost for short-term holders is above the current price, and their loss status suppresses selling pressure. If prices close above their cost, new closing demand will be stimulated, driving continued upward momentum. Overall, with sentiment and structural capital competing, the market is at a critical turning point for a potential one-sided trend.

QCP's market analysis on January 5 highlights a strengthening crypto market in Asia, with Bitcoin and Ethereum surpassing $92,000 and $3,100 respectively, driven by US actions in Venezuela, year-end tax-loss trading, and rising crypto legislation expectations. Speculation about Venezuela holding significant "shadow Bitcoin reserves" and using USDT in oil trades could make it a major sovereign BTC holder. Options data show a bullish shift, with increased call options and straddle strategies indicating short covering and bets on upward volatility.

QCP: Venezuela Situation and Options Funding Resonance Strengthen Bullish Expectations in the Crypto Market

Bitfinex Alpha report highlights that after a month of low liquidity and reduced volatility, Bitcoin is showing signs of stabilization and minor reversal in early 2026, trading within a narrow range of $85,000 to $94,000. The ETF-driven sell-off slowed significantly by the end of last year, suggesting the "de-risking" phase may be over. Strategy has increased Bitcoin holdings for several weeks, with market liquidity expected to improve in early 2026.

Bitfinex: Bitcoin is fluctuating narrowly between $85K and $94K, and liquidity conditions may improve.

Bitcoin Vault

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The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates as expected, with internal divisions reaching the highest level since 1992.

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Brazil’s central bank cut its key interest rate by a quarter point for a second straight meeting, even as inflation accelerates and signs of economic resilience emerge.

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