Although ELEPHANT's current market sentiment shows signs of recovery, there is no substantial breakthrough accompanied by significant volume, and the short-term consolidation pattern remains unbroken. Pay attention to key resistance levels (such as $X.XX) and volume confirmation, guarding against the risk of false breakouts. In the medium to long term, the main drivers will be the team's persistent innovation and ecological application; if network activity improves, there is potential for a steady value-driven uptrend. Given liquidity differentiation, short-term trading depth is insufficient, so positions must be strictly managed to avoid abnormal price fluctuations caused by liquidity shocks. In summary, it is advised to closely monitor capital flows and technical breakouts, with flexible adjustment of trading strategies.

Market sentiment is showing initial signs of improvement, especially as sentiment indicators repeatedly test bullish intentions. On ELEPHANT's daily chart, prices are consolidating within a recent range, failing to firmly break above resistance, while trading volume shows only slight expansion. Bulls and bears are contending near short-term moving averages; beware of false breakouts induced by sentiment reversals. Only after key resistance is convincingly breached with volume confirmation can a short-term trend be established.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

From a macro and industry fundamental perspective, bull markets are typically driven by the resonance of value and trend, rather than mere speculation. Amidst an improving macro environment and accelerated institutional allocation, projects with practical application scenarios and ongoing innovation are more likely to gain premium. Should the ELEPHANT team continue advancing technological development and ecological growth, enhancing network activity and utility, recognition may increase over the medium to long term and support a steady value-driven uptrend.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua stated that respected investors like Buffett profit from value and trends, not speculation. He affirmed that 2024 is set to be a bull market due to macro and industry factors beyond individual control. Short sellers are making a final effort but face losses—exiting early means small losses, exiting late means large losses. After a month of market volatility, optimism will prevail while pessimists lag behind.

Yi Lihua: Trend is better than speculation, the bull market is set, bears face "small losses early, big losses late."

There is significant liquidity differentiation in the derivatives market, with short-term crypto contracts generally seeing thin volume, and a few major contracts accounting for most of the trading activity, making large order slippage and price gaps more likely. As a niche token, ELEPHANT also faces short-term trading liquidity risks. Additionally, market capital is rotating from short-term crypto speculative contracts to macro-political themed contracts; short-term capital outflows may have a substantial impact on price. Pay attention to individual order depth and carefully manage position size during trading.

Elephant Money

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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