The MATRIX market has completed derivative deleveraging, and risk premium has declined, accumulating momentum for medium- to long-term growth. However, trading volume and price have yet to show a clear trend signal, so the short term may remain range-bound (key support and resistance levels to watch: USD 1860 and USD 2050). Liquidity differentiation is intensifying, putting pressure on the short-term speculative environment. It is advised to control leverage ratios and wait for market volume and depth to recover to high participation zones before increasing positions. Strategy should focus on flexible long-short responses and low-slippage execution.

Recently, the derivatives market has undergone significant deleveraging, with both long and short positions being notably reduced. This has lessened liquidation risks amid high volatility. The drop in open interest and leverage ratio allows capital to align more closely with fundamental valuations and suppresses excessive speculative price swings. For MATRIX, this means the market risk premium is likely to continue decreasing, medium- and long-term bullish momentum is gradually accumulating, the technical resistance to upward breakout will be eased, and a firmer bottoming structure may form for further gains.

Matrixport's latest analysis indicates that after a significant deleveraging in the derivatives market, the crypto market may establish a more solid foundation for a new rally in 2026. Since October 2025, nearly $30 billion in leverage from BTC and ETH futures contracts has been cleared, resulting in lighter positions and lower leverage. This shift is expected to bring prices closer to fundamental values and open up upside potential as speculative overheating cools down.

Matrixport: After the clearing of derivative leverage, a new round of market trends may begin in 2026 on a more robust foundation.

Market sentiment is showing early signs of improvement, but there are still insufficient trading volume and price confirmation indicators to establish a new trend. At this critical point, bullish confidence remains cautious, and short-term moving average reversals are not yet clear. If they are not accompanied by continued growth in volume, the market could easily revert to range-bound fluctuations. For MATRIX traders, a two-way strategy is recommended in the short term, patiently waiting for a breakout signal or a secondary retest before adding positions.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Based on the performance of derivatives and external prediction markets, short-term crypto asset trading depth is evidently weaker than other sectors, with capital concentrating on a few high-profile assets and overall trading volume remaining subdued. If MATRIX fails to attract sufficient market participation in the short term, large bid-ask spreads may develop, raising slippage costs. It is recommended to closely monitor order book depth and position distribution, and wait until liquidity returns to key high-volume areas before deploying capital to reduce execution risk.

MATRIX

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The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates before April 2027 has increased to 25%.

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The Federal Reserve maintains the policy interest rate unchanged, with a low possibility of a short-term rate cut.

Following the release of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, short-term U.S. interest rate futures continue to reflect a low probability of interest rate cuts this year.

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