MONK's current capital conditions and price performance both indicate ongoing probing by bulls and bears, with no clear trend breakout so far. Technically, the market remains in a consolidation pattern; despite short-term rebound opportunities, trading volume and fees have not increased synchronously, thus rebound momentum is limited. The liquidity structure shows concentrated market participation and limited depth, making slippage and widened spreads more likely. Mid- to long-term fundamentals have yet to show strong stabilization signals. It is advised to monitor key moving average resistance levels (short-term participation is possible if a breakout occurs with volume), strictly control leverage and positions, reduce holdings at highs or defend near resistance range tops, and beware of rapid deleveraging or liquidity contraction risks.

Recently, perpetual contract funding rates remain a core indicator of volatility in the market. Currently, MONK’s funding rates have not shown sustained increases—only minor fluctuations near historical averages—indicating continued probing and contest between bulls and bears. There has not been the sort of rapid surge and subsequent swift correction observed during previous short bull runs, suggesting market sentiment has not become excessively heated. Investors should stay alert for risks of rapid deleveraging triggered by short-term speculation.

Matrixport highlights that perpetual contract funding rates remain a key indicator of crypto market volatility. Past altcoin "mini bull markets" in 2024 saw sharp funding rate increases, while corrections led to rapid declines and deleveraging. These fluctuations were short-lived, driven mainly by speculative funds. Typically, funding rates hover around an annualized +5%. A true upcoming altcoin bull market is likely to feature a sustained rise in funding rates, remaining above normal levels for an extended period.

Matrixport: The next round of altcoin market, closer to a "real bull market," will most likely be accompanied by a more sustained rise in funding rates.

From a technical perspective, MONK's price is moving within a range, lacking a clear trend breakout. With expectations of liquidity recovery, there may be a technical rebound in the short term, but as trading volume and fees have not shown persistent increases, upward momentum may be limited. If the price regains key moving averages and is confirmed by rising volume, short-term sentiment could be further boosted; otherwise, the risk of a pullback remains.

Analyst Willy Woo tweeted that he expects a short-term rebound in January due to rising liquidity, signaling a bottoming bounce. However, based on trading volume and fees, he remains bearish on the long-term macro cycle, describing the market as bleak.

Willy Woo: There will be a short-term bottoming rebound in January.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Although some market data are starting to show signs of stabilization, the overall mid- to long-term macro cycle remains cautious. Trading volume and fee levels have not returned to healthy ranges, and there is no fundamental reversal in the bull-bear power balance. Investors should continue monitoring the strength and breadth of improvements in market liquidity and avoid position risks brought about by excessive optimism.

From the derivatives market liquidity structure, most short-term market participation is low, with trading concentrated in a few leading contracts; overall liquidity is insufficient. MONK is regarded as a mid-tier asset in this structure, with relatively cautious entry and exit of leveraged funds. Under current conditions, insufficient depth may intensify slippage and spread risks, so traders should manage positions and stop-losses properly.

monkeyhaircut

Ouch. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield just hit 5% and bitcoin may pay the price.

Bank of Japan: High oil prices and a weak yen could keep core inflation at around 3% for two consecutive years

The Federal Reserve maintains the interest rate at 3.5%-3.75%, continuing its wait-and-see approach.

Morgan Stanley delays Fed rate cut expectations to next year, inflation pressures remain high.

The Powell era comes to an end: What has he left behind?

Reminder: Please pay special attention to the following (all times are in Beijing time).

US growth likely picked up in first quarter, but consumer spending probably cooled

Morgan Stanley: Expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in 2026 and cut rates in 2027.

Bitcoin Slips to $75K as Federal Reserve Holds Rates, Dimming Warsh “Pivot Party” Hopes

SoSo Macro | Powell Remains Governor, Three Fed Voters Oppose Rate Cuts; Big Tech Cloud Revenue Growth Accelerates

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