Although there are signs of risk appetite recovering in the PIT market, the expected positive price-volume resonance has not materialized; thus, short-term bullish signals remain insufficient. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines and adopt a cautious approach. Short-term liquidity constraints have led to wider bid-ask spreads and increased slippage risks, inhibiting market activity. Fast traders should pay close attention to execution risks. In the medium-to-long term, trading volumes for contracts tied to geopolitical events have surged significantly. Hedging demand driven by external events has become a core growth driver, and strategic allocation is recommended. Pay close attention to the long-term allocation value and inflow trends in this sector.

Based on initial signals of improvement in the overall crypto market, risk appetite is recovering, but the current data is still insufficient to confirm a definite trend. At the daily or weekly chart level, neither trading volume nor price has displayed a significant breakout or effective support that converts into upward momentum. This means the bulls have not yet formed sustained follow-through. Short-term investors should closely monitor subsequent alignment of volume and price; only when both rise together can a bullish stance be confirmed—otherwise, it is best to remain on the sidelines.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

In short-term prediction markets, overall trading volume is sluggish and capital is concentrated in a few contracts, making PIT face widened bid-ask spreads and increased slippage risks in short-term trading. A lack of sufficient depth means small capital struggles to move prices, which in turn constrains trend formation and sharp reversals in the near term. Traders attempting rapid trades should beware of execution risks brought on by liquidity islands.

In the medium- and long-term market, demand for hedging macro political events is growing rapidly, and trading volume in related sectors far exceeds short-term contracts. This brings new incremental capital for PIT in the prediction market to participate in political event hedging. If market trends and the progression of political events validate one another, PIT is likely to obtain more stable demand support in the medium to long term, attracting value investors' attention.

Pitbull

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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