Recently, under geopolitical events and macro disturbances, market sentiment has dominated intensified price fluctuations in Q contracts. Derivative leverage has continued to deleverage, with large capital covering long positions and retail investors cashing out, creating a solid foundation for medium- to long-term upward moves. Technically, the 0.0090 range is a strong support, and the 0.0119–0.0120 resistance levels should be watched in the short term. If 0.0090 is held with corresponding volume, the trend may continue to challenge higher levels; if breached, accelerated pullbacks are possible. Flexible strategies, dynamic position management, and risk control are advised to capture opportunities for swift moves in a high-volatility environment.

A series of recent macro and geopolitical events have triggered sharp market fluctuations, with investors' risk appetite switching noticeably. After the US ordered the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices surged and US stock index futures plunged, making risk aversion briefly dominant and putting pressure on digital assets; subsequently, the easing of Middle East tensions, combined with a more hawkish stance from the Fed, has returned risk assets to heightened volatility amid repeated games. Meanwhile, leading gains in Bitcoin and Ethereum have warmed up the overall bullish sentiment, and during phases of risk preference, the pursuit of high-yield assets by off-exchange funds intensified, driving a trend rebound in Q contracts. In the short term, sentiment-driven price swings will likely be further amplified, so caution is needed regarding the timing window for rapid trading strategies.

Bitcoin surged past $72,000, rising about 3% to approximately $72,300, driven by easing tensions in the Middle East. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reportedly initiated talks with Lebanon, supported by Trump's call for reduced Israeli military actions to maintain a ceasefire. Bitcoin's 24-hour gain of around 2% outpaced other major cryptocurrencies and coincided with a rebound in U.S. stocks and a drop in oil prices. Bitcoin is increasingly decoupling from tech stocks, influenced more by geopolitical and risk-averse factors.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks through $72,000, Middle East ceasefire expectations boost market sentiment.

Due to Trump's order to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices surged, US stock futures fell, and the dollar strengthened. This escalation followed failed US-Iran talks in Pakistan, disappointing investors. Elias Haddad from Brown Brothers Harriman noted this will likely reignite risk aversion this week. Investors are also focused on the upcoming Q1 earnings season, seeking corporate leaders' views on rising risks.

Earnings season intertwined with geopolitical crises, market risk aversion reignites.

BitMart Research Weekly highlights easing US-Iran tensions and a hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve, driving a rebound in risk assets including crypto. US stocks, especially AI-related sectors, show strong recovery amid geopolitical risks. Inflation data signals potential upward pressure if oil prices stay high. Crypto markets follow US stocks with BTC and ETH leading, while altcoins remain volatile. Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy’s increased BTC holdings indicate long-term confidence.

BitMart Research Institute Weekly Hotspot Analysis: US-Iran Easing Combined with Fed's Hawkish Shift, Crypto Market Follows Rebound to Form a Bottom

Bitcoin futures open interest has retreated sharply from the peak in October last year to current levels, lowering the overall leverage and making the market more sensitive to small and medium-sized capital flows; meanwhile, Ethereum derivatives buying has recovered, with main players defending key supports and demand for long positions in derivatives continuing to rise. Futures open interest is approaching historical highs, and spot ETFs have seen net inflows in the hundreds of millions of RMB. These signs indicate that institutions and large capital are gradually replenishing long positions, while retail investors have taken profits on some recent gains, exerting short-term pressure on prices. Overall, the liquidity foundation is more robust after deleveraging, and the intertwined processes of long position replenishment and retail profit-taking support medium- to long-term upside potential.

Bitcoin futures open interest has halved from $42 billion in October 2025 to $21 billion, indicating a deep market deleveraging. Current low leverage means even small capital inflows can significantly impact prices. Funding rates have fluctuated sharply between -12% and +7%, showing rapid shifts in market sentiment. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, no major liquidations have occurred since early February, reflecting a healthier position structure. Bitcoin awaits a clear directional trend amid heightened market sensitivity.

Analysis: The market has undergone a round of deep deleveraging, and Bitcoin is waiting to choose a direction.

Market data shows Ethereum buyers are returning, with bulls defending the $2000 support level. Since March 6, Ethereum's aggressive buying volume has remained positive, indicating a recovery in derivatives market demand. The buying pressure dominates at $104 million, marking the first such shift in Ethereum derivatives since the last bear market. Futures open interest nears a historic high, and spot Ethereum ETFs saw a $120 million net inflow, the highest since mid-March.

Analysis: Ethereum's proactive order consumption has remained positive since March, signaling a recovery in the derivatives market.

Since mid-March, Q contracts have experienced two significant swings: hitting a high of 0.0185 on March 28 before quickly falling back to a low of 0.0046, then surging again to 0.0115 on April 11 on rising volume. Recently, the price has fluctuated in the 0.0080–0.0090 range, and after breaking above 0.0119 on April 15, it retraced to 0.0106. Currently, 0.0090 acts as an important short-term support, with 0.0119–0.0120 as significant previous resistance, and dense volume traded at these levels. Coupled with a negative gamma effect in derivatives as Bitcoin approaches key volatility points, if 0.0090 holds and strong demand remains, another test of 0.0120 is likely; if 0.0090 is breached, risk of a sharper short-term pullback increases. Dynamic position adjustment based on volume-price action and volatility is recommended.

Bitcoin has surpassed a four-week high, rising above $74,000. Analysts identify $75,000 as a critical "volatility release point," where derivative market negative gamma effects may amplify price fluctuations. This level coincides with Bitcoin's 100-day moving average, a key resistance in January. Breaking $75,000 could accelerate an uptrend, while a pullback may increase downward pressure. The $80,000–$80,600 range is a positive gamma zone with lower volatility, and the 200-day moving average at $87,519 serves as a long-term reference.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks four-week high, key price range may intensify market volatility

Quack AI

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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