The current market is in a stage of gradually restoring liquidity and initial shifting of risk appetite. Coupled with frequent liquidation events and heightened volatility, this drives capital to favor highly credible, low-friction stablecoins as the preferred choices for hedging and margin top-up in the short term. Selling pressure from short-term Bitcoin holders is limited, while resilient demand for stablecoins continues to be released. Strategy suggestion: Thanks to its compliance and high liquidity, USD+ has structural allocation value amid market volatility and differentiated liquidity patterns. It is recommended to maintain a high allocation in stages, pay attention to changes in net capital inflow in the short term, and focus on market size and compliance progress in the medium and long term.

At the beginning of the year, the market saw a rare breakout rally, yet core indicators still show that overall market cap and sentiment are in a recovery phase. Fear dominates the market, and although there are signs of liquidity improvement, risk appetite has not yet been fully released. In this atmosphere, the demand for stablecoins as hedging and standby cash tools remains robust. Meanwhile, as initial indications of capital shifting toward risk assets emerge, net inflows into USD stablecoins may see a temporary slowdown in the short term.

At the start of the year, the crypto market saw a rare upward breakthrough with BTC surpassing $90,000 and major altcoins like ETH and SOL rising. Several altcoins, including PEPE and IP, surged over 20%. However, key indicators show the market is still in a "price repair" phase with overall market cap below previous highs, a low altseason index, and fear-dominated sentiment. While some view this as a buying opportunity amid improving liquidity and macroeconomic developments, caution remains advised.

Speculation sentiment rises again at the beginning of the year, is the altcoin season repeating?

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Over the past 24 hours, more than $460 million in forced liquidations caused substantial automatic margin replenishment. Such liquidation events are often accompanied by surging demand for stablecoins as additional margin. Furthermore, after liquidations, funds typically return to safe asset accounts, resulting in a notable increase in demand for highly liquid, low-slippage stablecoins in the short term, providing direct support for USD+.

In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation across the network reached $463 million, with long positions liquidated at $317 million and short positions at $146 million, according to Coinglass data reported by ChainCatcher. Bitcoin long liquidations amounted to $120 million, shorts $33.39 million; Ethereum longs $65.86 million, shorts $43.92 million. A total of 122,514 traders were liquidated, with the largest single liquidation of $11.28 million on Hyperliquid BTC-USD.

Data: In the past 24 hours, the total liquidations across the entire network amounted to $463 million, with long position liquidations at $317 million and short position liquidations at $146 million.

Current Bitcoin prices are below the average cost of short-term holders, limiting their motivation to sell. This reduces downward selling pressure in the market, helping risk asset prices remain stable. During uncertain market conditions, investors prefer locking in positions and shifting to stable yield assets, further strengthening stablecoins' hedging utility and holders' willingness.

The options market is seeing a rise in the proportion of call options and straddle strategies, indicating that the market expects increased volatility and is positioning for short-term bullish opportunities. In strategy execution, stablecoins are often used as hedging and margin tools; rising volatility expectations further intensify reliance on highly credible, low-friction stablecoins, creating new use cases for USD+.

QCP's market analysis on January 5 highlights a strengthening crypto market in Asia, with Bitcoin and Ethereum surpassing $92,000 and $3,100 respectively, driven by US actions in Venezuela, year-end tax-loss trading, and rising crypto legislation expectations. Speculation about Venezuela holding significant "shadow Bitcoin reserves" and using USDT in oil trades could make it a major sovereign BTC holder. Options data show a bullish shift, with increased call options and straddle strategies indicating short covering and bets on upward volatility.

QCP: Venezuela Situation and Options Funding Resonance Strengthen Bullish Expectations in the Crypto Market

Analysis reveals that short-term crypto market liquidity is far lower than other sectors and is highly concentrated on a few assets. Liquidity dispersion and transparency differences lead users to favor compliant, auditable stablecoins to mitigate counterparty risk. With compliance and audit advantages, USD+ has long-term competitiveness in the context of liquidity differentiation.

PANews analyzed 295,000 historical markets on Polymarket, revealing that 63.16% of short-term markets (under 1 day) had zero transactions in 24 hours. Short-term crypto markets suffer from low liquidity, with sports markets averaging $1.32 million in volume, 30 times higher than crypto's $44,000. A small number of top contracts (505) account for 47% of total volume. Long-term markets (>30 days) have 45 times more liquidity, led by US politics. Geopolitical markets are the fastest-growing segment. Polymarket is polarizing into "high-frequency sports betting" and "macro political hedging," with liquidity concentrated in few top narratives.

PANews data: 63% of the short-term market on Polymarket had 0 transactions in the last 24 hours, with 505 top contracts accounting for 47% of the trading volume.

Overnight.fi USD+

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Trump: US-Iran talks progress as Iran suspends nuclear program

Trump warns of bombing if no Iran deal by April 21 ceasefire expiration

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

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