WUSDT has recently shown a high-level consolidation pattern. In the short term, it was lifted by Bitcoin's breakout to $0.01349, but it failed to effectively break through the key resistance at $0.0135. Trading volume then fell back, indicating increased pressure from profit-taking bulls. Currently, attention should be paid to the support effectiveness in the $0.0123–$0.0125 range; if trading volume does not return to a high level, consolidation is expected to continue between $0.0117 and $0.0135. It is advisable to remain on the sidelines in the short term and wait for a breakout signal; for mid-term positioning, focus on changes in trading volume at support areas and potential macro catalysts.

Recent discussions in the market regarding traditional chart patterns have led to divided risk appetite. The classic four-week flag pattern failed to complete and breakout within the designated period, causing some traders to adopt a cautious stance towards further upside. Against this backdrop, WUSDT has fluctuated between the 0.0117–0.0130 range since early April and repeatedly tested the lower end of the channel during the late March to early April decline, while trading activity has somewhat slowed. Short-term sentiment is biased toward waiting and seeing, suppressing excessive position-building and leveraged bottom-fishing.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt rejects the idea that Bitcoin's current multi-month consolidation is a "bull flag," cautioning against creating charting rules to fit bullish biases. He emphasizes that classical technical analysis principles, established by pioneers like Schabacker and Edwards & Magee, require flag patterns to complete and break out within four weeks. Bitcoin's seven-week upward channel does not meet these criteria and may not function as a true flag.

Veteran Chartist Brandt Rejects Bitcoin Bull Flag Narrative

As Bitcoin successively broke through the $74,000 mark and approached the key $75,000 level, volatility triggered by negative gamma effects in derivatives markets attracted a renewed risk appetite. At the same time, continued accumulation by whale-level investors provided funding support for the premium. On April 14, WUSDT started at $0.0119, reaching as high as $0.01322 within two days, and surged to $0.01349 on April 17, with trading volume soaring to nearly 190 million. This round of gains reflects the follow-up effect brought by major asset breakouts, with short-term bullish sentiment significantly replenished.

Bitcoin has surpassed a four-week high, rising above $74,000. Analysts identify $75,000 as a critical "volatility release point," where derivative market negative gamma effects may amplify price fluctuations. This level coincides with Bitcoin's 100-day moving average, a key resistance in January. Breaking $75,000 could accelerate an uptrend, while a pullback may increase downward pressure. The $80,000–$80,600 range is a positive gamma zone with lower volatility, and the 200-day moving average at $87,519 serves as a long-term reference.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks four-week high, key price range may intensify market volatility

Bitcoin has surpassed a four-week high, rising above $74,000. Analysts identify $75,000 as a critical "volatility release point," where price fluctuations may intensify due to negative gamma effects in the derivatives market. This level coincides with Bitcoin's 100-day moving average, previously a major resistance in January. Breaking above $75,000 could accelerate the uptrend, while a decline may increase downward pressure. The $80,000–$80,600 range marks a positive gamma zone with lower volatility, and the 200-day moving average at $87,519 serves as a long-term reference.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks through a four-week high, key price range may intensify market volatility

Following the price pullback at high levels, trading volume on April 17 fell sharply compared to the previous day, indicating increased profit-taking by bulls. Currently, WUSDT faces short-term resistance around $0.0135; if it fails to consolidate above this level, a retracement to the $0.0123–$0.0125 support range is likely. Additionally, the daily Relative Strength Index has entered a neutrally high range, suggesting that a new trend confirmation or stimulus from macro fundamentals is needed to determine the next direction. In the medium term, if WUSDT can establish a base and regain volume in the support area, an upward move may resume; otherwise, consolidation between $0.0117 and $0.0135 will likely continue.

Wormhole

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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