Currently, SWAN is driven by a recovery in market sentiment and is likely to rebound in the short term and test key resistance levels (it is recommended to watch the $X.XX-$X.XX range). However, due to insufficient trading volume, caution is required against false breakouts and significant volatility risks. Given liquidity constraints, unilateral market moves may be amplified, and emotional selling pressure cannot be ruled out during pullbacks. It is advised to strictly control position sizes and stop-losses. From a medium- to long-term perspective, rising macro-level risk aversion increases SWAN’s hedging value, offering potential allocation opportunities. Close attention should be paid to macro hotspots and the flow of mainstream funds going forward.

Recently, market sentiment has shown initial signs of improvement, which may attract speculative capital back into SWAN, driving the price to bottom out within the short-term range and test key resistance levels. However, before the trend is confirmed by increased trading volume, traders should be wary of the risks associated with false breakouts when volume fails to expand in tandem. Pay attention to emotional selling during pullbacks, and maintain disciplined position sizing and stop-loss management.

Currently, the overall depth of transactions in the short-term crypto market remains low, making it easy to amplify unilateral price movements. SWAN may experience sharp rallies followed by rapid pullbacks when small amounts of capital enter the market. Meanwhile, as attention to macro political and economic events increases, tokens with hedging attributes could gain allocation opportunities. In the medium to long term, it is important to monitor the trend of mainstream narratives shifting toward the macro hedging sector.

Black Swan

U.S. March jobs smash expectations, with 178,000 added

The US added 178K seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll jobs in March, compared to the expected 60K.

US unemployment rate in March is 4.3%, expected 4.4%

Gate Institutional Weekly Report: BTC Funding Rate Turns Positive, CEX TradFi Trading Volume Soars

Short-term physical demand drives WTI crude oil to rise more than Brent crude oil: On-chain whales liquidated $13.4 million in Brent crude long positions and fully switched to WTI crude oil.

Bitcoin Dips, Oil Price Jumps 11% as Russia, China, France Block UN Resolution on Hormuz

Paper vs. Physical: The $34 Gap Exposing the True Cost of the Iran Oil Shock

Bitunix Analyst: Energy and Industrial Chain Risks Unresolved, Policy Maintains Tight Stance, Market Enters "High Inflation Expectation Locking Liquidity" Phase

The US March non-farm payroll report will be released tonight at 8:30 PM, with an expected increase of 60K jobs.

Preview: The US unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data for March will be released today at 20:30.

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