MVRS is currently facing a key test of support at $102,000, a level that has repeatedly served as a turning point for market sentiment. Holding this level firmly will boost bullish confidence and may provide momentum for a technical rebound. The risk of breaking down could lead the price to slide toward $98,000, which acts as the average cost line for short-term holders and the bull-bear dividing line; a breakdown may intensify panic sentiment. In the short term, it is suggested to try small long positions near $102,000 with strict stop-loss orders; if the level breaks, then pay attention to the effectiveness of the support around $98,000. For medium- and long-term investors, holding above $102,000 allows for aggressive positioning, while stabilization at $98,000 can be regarded as a defense area. Stick to risk control and respond flexibly.

In recent price action, the $102,000 level has repeatedly acted as both support and resistance, forming a critical price that draws market attention. According to MVRV extreme deviation pricing zones, if this level is effectively maintained, it will help boost bullish confidence in the short term and drive a technical rebound. If the current price holds this level, it could attract dip buyers and ease market panic.

From a technical perspective, if the price consolidates sideways near this area, it indicates a temporary balance between bulls and bears, allowing bulls to accumulate positions while awaiting a larger directional confirmation. If accompanied by increased trading volume and a short-term gap-up, the bullish momentum will be further strengthened.

On June 22, on-chain data analyst Murphy stated that the $102,000 level has been a critical support or resistance point since March 2, according to the MVRV extreme deviation pricing range. If this support holds, a rebound is expected unless further negative events occur. However, if it fails, the price may drop to $98,000, which is also the average cost line for short-term holders and considered a key "bull-bear dividing line."

Analyst: $102,000 is a short-term key support level; if broken, the price may drop to $98,000, the "bull-bear dividing line."

If the $102,000 support fails, it may trigger short-term stop-loss expectations, potentially dragging the price down toward the $98,000 area. This level also aligns with the average cost for short-term holders, meaning the equilibrium 'bull-bear dividing line' is forming at this point:

- If the price falls below this level, panic sentiment will intensify and short-term holders may accelerate stop-loss exits;
- If support is regained at this level, it shows determination by dip buyers to defend, possibly initiating a new round of accumulation and rebound.

From a long-term value perspective, $98,000 represents the short-term cost line but is not a historic undervaluation. If it is breached, further sustained decline would require additional negative factors.

Based on the current support-resistance structure, trading strategies can be formulated from two dimensions:

1. Short-term Sentiment Play:
   - Near $102,000, you can try small long positions, with stop-loss set just below this level and slightly above the breakdown amplitude;
   - If confirmed breakdown with volume, wait for a pullback to $98,000, then reassess whether to enter.

2. Medium- and Long-term Value Capture:
   - If the price stays above $102,000 with volume, aggressive positioning can be considered;
   - If the price drops and stabilizes around $98,000, treat this area as a medium- and long-term defense zone and enter in batches.

Overall, the current market is at a key support testing stage, so strict risk control is recommended to cope with rapid sentiment swings.

Magaverse

The U.S. military's "blockade order" on Iranian ports has come into effect.

USD: Fed patience and Iran risks shape outlook – TD Securities

Poland will likely keep interest rates unchanged in the coming quarters as inflation is expected to remain within the central bank’s tolerance range despite pressures from the Iran war, according to policymaker Wieslaw Janczyk.

Iran says no port in the region will be safe if Iranian ports are threatened

Fed: On hold as energy shock lifts inflation – Deutsche Bank

Crypto markets stall as oil surges past $100 on Strait of Hormuz blockade

Return to the Margins: A New Contest Over Maritime Power, Energy, and the Dollar

ECB: Earlier hikes as core risks rise – Societe Generale

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signals a more cautious stance on raising interest rates by adjusting his language

The probability of an interest rate hike by the European Central Bank in April has risen to 50%.

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