FLUX has recently experienced a sharp short-term rally driven by a rebound in market risk appetite and ETF inflows, which led to sell-off pressures from profit-taking. Currently, the $0.066–$0.068 range is a critical support zone, while $0.075–$0.080 serves as a major resistance area. On-chain and derivatives market signals indicate a cooling of risk appetite in the short term, suggesting the need to guard against further pullbacks. For the mid-to-long term, despite continued institutional inflows and persistent holder confidence, trends remain primarily dictated by policy and liquidity variables. Investors are advised to closely monitor global asset allocation trends and accumulate positions in batches after key supports are confirmed and market sentiment stabilizes, to capture potential value appreciation cycles.

Over the past two weeks, with global market risk appetite rebounding, FLUX saw a sharp rally mid-month, surging from $0.056 to as high as $0.0798. This was mainly fueled by continued net inflows into major crypto ETFs and market confidence boosted by easing geopolitical tensions. However, after hitting the peak, significant profit-taking ensued and the price quickly pulled back to around $0.067, reflecting divergence in sentiment-driven short-term volatility. The market is currently in a tug-of-war between ETF inflows and profit-taking, with the short-term direction depending on whether positive sentiment can regain control.

Glassnode's latest report highlights intensified market tug-of-war with spot CVD turning negative, indicating increased selling pressure and emerging bearish sentiment. Futures show rising risk appetite but declining long funding rates, reflecting growing bearishness. Options suggest reduced downside protection demand and neutralizing volatility. Meanwhile, US spot ETFs see rising MVRV and inflows, boosting investor interest and supporting cautious optimism amid stable long-term holder confidence.

Glassnode: Market bullish and bearish struggles intensify, spot CVD turns negative indicating increased selling pressure, but ETF inflows provide support.

Net on-chain trading volume has turned negative, indicating an accumulation of selling pressure. While the futures market rate reflects rising risk appetite, declining funding rates for longs reveal a cautious attitude toward additional positions. Demand for aggressive downside protection in options has fallen, and implied volatility is tending toward neutral, suggesting participants are no longer actively hedging and are more likely observing from the sidelines. Collectively, these signals point to a mild uptick in short-term bearish sentiment, and investors should be alert to the risk of intensified pullbacks.

ChainCatcher reports that Bitcoin short-term holders' discount has narrowed from -21.6% to -5.7%, with the STH-SOPR 7-day average rising above 1, indicating short-term sellers are no longer clearly at a loss. However, the current price remains below the $83,000 cost basis, suggesting the market has not yet entered a true risk-on phase.

Data: Analysis: Short-term Bitcoin holders' discount narrows, market warms up but risk appetite has not yet started.

On the daily chart, FLUX formed a base through sideways consolidation around $0.056, then broke out with volume to reach $0.0798. However, buying volume failed to sustain at higher levels, and a pullback intensified. Currently, the $0.066–$0.068 zone acts as key lower support within the short-term range, while resistance is concentrated at $0.075–$0.080. If price manages a clear breakout beyond this zone, bulls may regain momentum; otherwise, prices are likely to oscillate within the range, with further downside tests possible if support fails.

The macro environment remains a battleground of multiple variables, and market structure research indicates a true risk appetite reversal has yet to emerge. Although ETFs continue to attract institutional capital and long-term holders remain confident, industry policies and macro liquidity changes are still the dominant forces impacting price. When building medium- to long-term positions, investors should apply systematic frameworks to observe potential turning points, and closely monitor the dynamics of global major asset allocations to seize the mid-to-long term value release opportunities in FLUX.

This article systematically analyzes the current crypto market downturn from the perspectives of the macro environment, institutional behavior, market structure, and industry trends. Combining Huobi HTX research insights, it offers forward-looking views on potential future turning points and long-term trends, aiming to provide market participants with a more structured framework for judgment.

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Datamine FLUX

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