PONGO is currently driven by the recovery of sentiment in the crypto market. In the short term, its price fluctuates between key moving averages, with a strong atmosphere of investor caution and capital sitting on the sidelines. Changes in trading volume may signal a breakout in trend, so it is advisable to closely monitor the volume dynamics and movements around critical levels such as support and resistance near key moving averages. Structurally, if PONGO ventures into Order Book-based prediction markets, it will face professional barriers such as liquidity scarcity, information asymmetry, and position risk, making it suitable for professional investors with market making and risk control capabilities, while ordinary investors should strictly control their risk exposure. In the medium to long term, if PONGO can leverage high-frequency trading and macro hedging strategies to enhance liquidity concentration and strengthen platform stickiness through strategic partnerships, its long-term value has room for release. It is recommended to keep tracking its initiatives to boost liquidity and core user growth, and to strategically position for medium to long-term configuration.

Recently, overall crypto market sentiment has shown signs of improvement, but a clear trend has yet to form. From the daily-level candlesticks of PONGO, the price repeatedly fluctuates near key moving averages, indicating a pronounced tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The market remains cautious about initial signs of recovery, and in the short term, capital may predominantly remain in wait-and-see mode. Should a valid breakout or correction occur, it could trigger increased trading volume movements. Traders should closely watch changes in volume to assess whether market sentiment is genuinely shifting to optimism or reverting.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

In prediction markets based on the Order Book model, liquidity providers need to actively adjust their positions to manage risk, and the market environment sets a high entry threshold for new participants. If PONGO takes part in such scenarios, it will confront jumpy volatility driven by discrete events and the risk of information asymmetry. Only teams with robust risk management and continuous market-making capabilities can remain profitable in fierce competition. Ordinary investors should beware of single-contract liquidity traps and allocate risk exposure reasonably.

The article discusses the challenges of market making in prediction markets, highlighting that less than 10% survive until year-end. Unlike AMM-based markets, prediction markets rely on order book models with higher operational complexity, inventory risk, and volatile, jumpy price movements driven by discrete events. Successful market making requires advanced strategies and risk management, often beyond ordinary users' capabilities. Leading platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi invest heavily in liquidity subsidies, creating strong barriers for new entrants and reinforcing dominant players.

Prediction markets are tough: less than 10% may actually survive until the end of the year.

Market data shows that short-term contracts generally suffer from liquidity shortages, while long-term thematic contracts attract more attention due to factors such as macro politics and geopolitical competition. If PONGO can find its positioning amid the dual tracks of high-frequency trading and macro hedging, attracting a core user base and enhancing liquidity concentration on the platform, it can stand out in a fiercely competitive ecosystem. It is recommended to focus on PONGO’s strategic collaboration and off-exchange liquidity guidance initiatives to assess its long-term value capacity.

Pongo

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