Under the current market structure, the THE contract presents a confrontation between continuous institutional spot capital inflows and short-side pressure on the contract side, converging in the 0.098–0.11 range. Trading volumes are declining while bottom indicators are picking up, indicating that the main force is building up positions amid low volatility and consolidation. In the short term, attention should be paid to the inflow of US Bitcoin ETFs and whether BTC can break through the $8,000 threshold. On the risk side, geopolitical events and macro uncertainty increase the potential for leveraged volatility. Traders are advised to control their positions and leverage, closely monitor capital flows and the selling pressure at the upper bound of the range. A breakout above 0.11 may herald a new round of upward movement, while a breakdown below 0.098 requires caution against an accelerated pullback.

On-chain data shows that the cumulative volume delta (CVD) in the contract market has seen a significant decline, reflecting the accumulation of short-side forces in the short term. Meanwhile, the downward movement of funding rates for long positions suggests lower costs for longs and a rather cautious trading sentiment. On the spot side, however, US Bitcoin ETFs continue to see net capital inflow, pushing the MVRV indicator higher, which means institutional allocation willingness remains undiminished. This hedging between external spot capital and contract short forces forms the core game in the digital asset market, also providing the emotional foundation for THE to maintain its consolidation in the 0.098–0.11 range.

Glassnode's latest report highlights intensified market tug-of-war with spot CVD turning negative, indicating increased selling pressure and emerging bearish sentiment. Futures show rising risk appetite but declining long funding rates, reflecting growing bearishness. Options suggest reduced downside protection demand and neutralizing volatility. Meanwhile, US spot ETFs see rising MVRV and inflows, boosting investor interest and supporting cautious optimism amid stable long-term holder confidence.

Glassnode: Market bullish and bearish struggles intensify, spot CVD turns negative indicating increased selling pressure, but ETF inflows provide support.

After a sharp decline in early April, THE contract has stabilized, and a converging pattern on the daily chart is forming. Trading volume has continued to fall from its medium-term high, showing that longs and shorts are in a balanced fight within the range. Short-term resistance is concentrated at 0.104–0.110, with several failed breakouts during US trading hours; support is being sustained near 0.099–0.100. From the broader market perspective, technical indicators are showing bottoming signals, and as capital rotates back into the Bitcoin market, a confirmed break of the $8,000 level could drive THE into a synchronous upward movement. However, caution is warranted as any liquidity bottleneck may intensify selling pressure at the top of the range.

BIT Research indicates multiple signals are simultaneously strengthening, suggesting that Bitcoin's recovery rally may have begun. From technical convergence to capital restoration, the market is gradually confirming a trend reversal.

BIT Research: Multiple Signals Strengthen Simultaneously, Has the Bitcoin Recovery Rally Already Started?

Bitcoin rose 2% to $7,910 and Ethereum 3% to $2,388 amid easing geopolitical tensions, boosting Asian markets with Japan's Nikkei 225 and South Korea's Kospi hitting record highs. The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw $823.7 million net inflows for the fourth consecutive week. The crypto fear and greed index improved from 29 (fear) to 47 (neutral). Analyst Dominick John attributes gains to ETF inflows, technical breakthroughs, and reduced risk aversion.

Analyst: Both the crypto market and Asian stock markets rise amid easing geopolitical tensions.

Continued Middle East geopolitical tensions are making major central banks more likely to stand pat at upcoming meetings, but the uncertainty of these events still leaves the market with a risk-off sentiment. At the same time, both borrowing rates for short selling and leverage demand are rising, indicating a buildup of speculative capital expecting significant volatility in the short term. This means that if a catalyst is triggered, a rapid squeeze move may occur, amplifying volatility. Traders should closely monitor securities lending rates and holding costs while managing leverage prudently, in order to prevent deep pullbacks caused by unexpected risks.

Danske Bank analyst Asger Wilhelm Dalsjo highlights that with the Middle East conflict entering its ninth week, central banks will assess its current and future economic impacts. This week, the Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank will hold policy meetings. While all are expected to keep interest rates unchanged, their evaluations of the conflict's economic effects will be closely watched, making monetary policy decisions the main market driver.

Analyst: Interest rate decision will be the main market driver, focus on the impact of Middle East conflict.

the coin

Brad Conger: Internal Fed Disputes Set Tone for Future Policy, Hawks May Prevail

BREAKING: FED Chair Jerome Powell Holds a Press Conference Following the Interest Rate Decision – LIVE

Powell: No reason to believe policy will tighten significantly

Powell: Unable to Clearly Determine the Neutral Interest Rate

Powell will signal and take action if a rate hike is needed.

Analyst: Unexpected divisions within the Federal Reserve; worsening challenges expected after Wash's appointment

Analyst: Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve highlight the challenges facing Waller.

Powell: The prospect of rising core inflation is real.

Powell: The current interest rate is at the high end of the neutral range, slightly tight.

Powell: Changing the easing bias is a form of forward guidance.

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