BTW token has recently seen a significant recovery in market sentiment, with rising liquidity and trading activity laying the groundwork for a short-term rebound. However, as the price approaches the short-term cost zone for holders (key resistance zone suggested to monitor ±5% fluctuations), there is medium-term pressure for concentrated profit-taking. It is necessary to closely track turnover rate and volume coordination to identify signals for trend continuation. In the medium-to-long term, favorable macro and industry fundamentals suggest that projects with real applications and established communities are likely to benefit. Investors are advised to combine swing trading characteristics, adopt batch entry and strict position control strategies, and aim to improve risk-adjusted return expectations.

Multiple recent indicators show that short-term market sentiment is recovering. With overall liquidity rising and on-chain transaction fees rebounding, the momentum for bottoming out is quietly forming. Additionally, bullish positions and straddle strategies have increased in the options market, reflecting institutional and high-frequency capital bets on rising market volatility. Meanwhile, short-term holders are generally at an unrealized loss, which limits sell pressure and technically supports the rebound.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel notes that Bitcoin's current rise benefits from reduced selling pressure by short-term holders, who are currently at a loss since BTC trades below their average acquisition cost. This limits their profit-taking potential and suppresses sell pressure, explaining price resilience despite pullbacks. However, if BTC reaches $100,000, short-term holders may break even and start selling, creating price pressure. A key bullish signal is BTC closing above the short-term holders' realized price.

Analyst: The current BTC rise benefits from reduced selling pressure; if it reaches $100K, it will face selling from short-term holders.

QCP's market analysis on January 5 highlights a strengthening crypto market in Asia, with Bitcoin and Ethereum surpassing $92,000 and $3,100 respectively, driven by US actions in Venezuela, year-end tax-loss trading, and rising crypto legislation expectations. Speculation about Venezuela holding significant "shadow Bitcoin reserves" and using USDT in oil trades could make it a major sovereign BTC holder. Options data show a bullish shift, with increased call options and straddle strategies indicating short covering and bets on upward volatility.

QCP: Venezuela Situation and Options Funding Resonance Strengthen Bullish Expectations in the Crypto Market

Analyst Willy Woo tweeted that he expects a short-term rebound in January due to rising liquidity, signaling a bottoming bounce. However, based on trading volume and fees, he remains bearish on the long-term macro cycle, describing the market as bleak.

Willy Woo: There will be a short-term bottoming rebound in January.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

As the price approaches the average cost zone for short-term holders, the momentum for profit-taking is gradually gathering. Once the price fills back into this cost zone, concentrated selling pressure may emerge, posing a major test for medium-term trend continuation. Technically, the aggregation of mid-term moving averages will coincide with this cost band, and the coordination between volume and price performance will determine the next direction. Investors should monitor the effectiveness of resistance breakthroughs and subsequent changes in turnover rate.

At the intersection of value investing and trend following, the market is undergoing structural strategic play. On one hand, asset performance during bull cycles validates the relative advantages of trend investing; on the other hand, macro policies and industry regulatory expectations are becoming clearer, providing fertile ground for quality projects' long-term growth. For tokens with real use cases and robust community ecosystems, maintaining activity and innovation during medium-term fluctuations will increase the likelihood of value realization. Investors should closely follow market rhythms, strictly manage position sizes, and strategically enter in batches to smooth out costs.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua emphasized the importance of trend investing, stating that one should buy in a bull market and sell in a bear market. He noted that it's impossible to buy at the lowest or sell at the highest points. Yi highlighted that their approach is simply to share their understanding and operations without competing with others, and that profits or losses are determined by the market, alongside personal growth and connections made during the process.

Yi Lihua: Stick to trend investing, winning or losing is determined by the market.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua stated that respected investors like Buffett profit from value and trends, not speculation. He affirmed that 2024 is set to be a bull market due to macro and industry factors beyond individual control. Short sellers are making a final effort but face losses—exiting early means small losses, exiting late means large losses. After a month of market volatility, optimism will prevail while pessimists lag behind.

Yi Lihua: Trend is better than speculation, the bull market is set, bears face "small losses early, big losses late."

Bitway

US Treasury yields rise, market focuses on this week's central bank meetings.

Barclays: The Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this week, but may still cut rates within the year.

Bank of England to keep rates on hold while it gauges impact of Iran war

The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Tuesday, setting up a communication challenge for Governor Kazuo Ueda as the foundering yen hovers near levels that have prompted past interventions.

The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 100%, while the probability of a rate cut in June is only 4.7%.

HTX DeepThink: After Interest Rate Cut Expectations Are Postponed to September, the Structural Differentiation of the Crypto Market Intensifies

FOMC Meeting: US Fed Expected To Hold Rates Till 2027 Despite Kevin Warsh Taking Charge

Senate Committee Sets April 29 Vote To Advance Pro-Crypto Warsh’s Fed Chair Nomination

The global oil shock has the Fed cornered just days before its next meeting — what that means for Bitcoin

The US Treasury market is focusing on the Federal Reserve meeting, with the probability of a rate cut by the end of the year rising to 40%.

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