In the short term, COW's price is affected by expectations of a global economic recession and increased risk aversion in the market, resulting in a clear contraction of risk appetite. The price fluctuates repeatedly in the 0.195-0.218 range, and the decreasing trading volume indicates capital is on the sidelines. A breakout from this range will indicate new momentum. It is recommended to watch the effectiveness of the 0.195 support in the short term: if broken, new lows may be tested; if there is an increase in trading volume and a breakout above 0.218, COW may regain strength. In the medium and long term, application prospects driven by AI and payment innovation, as well as industry encryption upgrades, provide potential support for COW. It is suitable to pay attention to COW on dips and wait for a resonance of fundamentals and industry catalysts.

Since late March, expectations of a global economic recession have intensified, and leading market participants have adopted a cautious stance, putting overall risk assets under pressure. After reaching a high of 0.249 on March 16, COW rapidly retreated and dropped to around the 0.195 support level on March 27, reflecting an increase in investors’ short-term risk control needs and a preference for avoiding highly volatile assets.

From a technical perspective, COW has fluctuated repeatedly within the 0.195-0.218 range. On April 6, single-day trading volume surged to about 7.4 million, with the price oscillating between 0.204-0.231 in a washout pattern, but it soon retraced and remained around the mid-range. Currently, trading volume continues to decline, indicating persistent wait-and-see sentiment. In the mid-term, it is necessary to monitor the validity of the 0.195 support and the 0.218 resistance level.

Attention is drawn to the ongoing large-scale investment in AI, along with the restructuring of the payment industry model, which is conducive to the long-term application demand for ecosystem tokens. Furthermore, quantum computing security breakthroughs indicate that the industry needs to enhance cryptographic protocols, potentially providing new opportunities for subsequent project iterations. Overall, although short-term development may be constrained by macro and technical factors, in the long run, industrial innovation favors value realization.

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US: Energy shock complicates Fed path – Commerzbank

The initial expected one-year inflation rate in the US for April is 4.8%, with an expectation of 4.3%.

U.S. April one-year inflation expectation preliminary reading at 4.8%, expected 4.3%

Hassett: The Federal Reserve still has room to cut interest rates, outlook remains stable.

The market expects only about a one-third probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points this year.

Hassett: The Federal Reserve still has room to cut interest rates, and this outlook will be very solid.

Hassett: The Strait of Hormuz can be reopened within two months, and the Federal Reserve still has room to cut interest rates.

Economist: Core inflation is weak but pressure is lagging, inflation remains sticky.

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