The overall trend of XEC is currently influenced by improvements in macroeconomic data and the strong performance of Bitcoin, leading to a temporary recovery in risk appetite. However, there are significant disagreements between bulls and bears in the derivatives market, and capital lacks sustainable support. On the technical side, the key resistance level to watch is $0.0075; if XEC can effectively break through and hold above this level, a new upward move may start. If it fails and falls back, a short-term retest of the $0.0069–$0.0068 range may occur. Investors are advised to remain cautious, pay attention to market liquidity and macro linkage changes, gradually reduce positions on highs, and wait for a clearer direction before ramping up positions.

Recently, US core PCE and CPI data met expectations, alleviating concerns about continued tightening of monetary policy. Bitcoin stabilized in the $73,000–$74,000 range and tested higher. This macro-level certainty has boosted risk appetite across crypto assets. In early April, XEC contracts rebounded steadily from around $0.0067, closely following Bitcoin's bullish pace, with short-term sentiment showing signs of recovery.

The latest US PCE inflation data met expectations, easing market uncertainty and stabilizing Bitcoin around $73,000. Core PCE rose 3% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month. Despite easing US-Iran tensions, potential energy price impacts remain unreflected. Investors remain cautious about Fed rate cuts. Economist Mohamed El-Erian highlights upcoming CPI data as more critical amid oil price volatility. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe maintains an $80,000 Bitcoin target if key support holds.

Analysts maintain an $80K Bitcoin target as PCE inflation data boosts market sentiment.

Looking at the derivatives funding rate, though there have been multiple touches at the lower bound of 0.005% and brief attempts to rise above 0.01%, the overall picture remains a mix of bulls and bears. This volatility reflects investors' divergence on the continuation of the trend at higher levels, causing XEC contract market daily volumes to spike occasionally but lacking sustained buying support. In the short term, this cautious sentiment may cause XEC to experience repeated range-bound movement in the $0.0073–$0.0075 zone.

On April 10, as Bitcoin surpassed $72,000 again, data from Coinglass showed that funding rates on major centralized and decentralized exchanges indicate a deepening bearish market sentiment. Funding rates, used to balance perpetual contract prices with underlying asset prices, reflect trader sentiment: rates above 0.01% suggest bullishness, while rates below 0.005% indicate bearishness. Current rates point to increased bearishness.

The current mainstream CEX and DEX funding rates indicate a deepening bearish sentiment in the market.

As of April 8, with Bitcoin surpassing $74,000, data from Coinglass shows that funding rates on major centralized and decentralized exchanges indicate a significant weakening of bearish sentiment, with many rates returning to neutral. Funding rates, used to balance perpetual contract prices with underlying assets, reflect market sentiment: rates above 0.01% suggest bullishness, while rates below 0.005% indicate bearishness.

The current mainstream CEX and DEX funding rates indicate a significant weakening of the bearish market sentiment.

According to Coinglass data on April 16, as Bitcoin continues to rise, the funding rates on major centralized and decentralized exchanges indicate a significant weakening of the bearish market sentiment. Funding rates, used to balance perpetual contract prices with underlying asset prices, show that when rates exceed 0.01%, the market is generally bullish, while rates below 0.005% indicate bearish sentiment.

On April 17, Coinglass data showed that as Bitcoin maintained a volatile trend, the funding rates on major CEX and DEX platforms indicated a deepening bearish sentiment in the market. Funding rates, used to balance perpetual contract prices with underlying asset prices, reflect trader sentiment: rates above 0.01% signal bullishness, while rates below 0.005% indicate bearishness. Current rates suggest increased market pessimism.

The daily chart shows that XEC has been consolidating in the $0.0065–$0.0068 range since mid-March. On April 16th and 17th, volume surged past $0.0073 twice but met resistance and pulled back at $0.0075–$0.00755, indicating selling pressure at this level. If Bitcoin can effectively break through $75,000 and remain strong at its highs, it may drive XEC above $0.0075. Otherwise, a short-term retest of support at the $0.0069–$0.0068 zone is possible.

Bitcoin has surpassed a four-week high, rising above $74,000. Analysts identify $75,000 as a critical "volatility release point," where derivative market negative gamma effects may amplify price fluctuations. This level coincides with Bitcoin's 100-day moving average, a key resistance in January. Breaking $75,000 could accelerate an uptrend, while a pullback may increase downward pressure. The $80,000–$80,600 range is a positive gamma zone with lower volatility, and the 200-day moving average at $87,519 serves as a long-term reference.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks four-week high, key price range may intensify market volatility

eCash

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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