EUL's recent trend has been driven by multiple factors including geopolitical uncertainty, hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve, and resonance with mainstream assets, shifting from wide-range oscillation to explosive rally. In the short term, a rebound in the US Dollar Index and risk-averse sentiment temporarily suppressed risk appetite; EUL stabilized at the 0.96 level without breaking down, indicating strong bottom support. As geopolitical tensions eased and market sentiment recovered, funds flowed back from safe-haven assets to high-beta targets, pushing EUL above 1.22 with expanding volume. Subsequently, driven by Bitcoin's strong breakout, trading volume hit a record high, peaking at 1.84. Currently, EUL maintains a strong posture; in the short term, focus on turnover and support testing in the 1.40–1.60 range. If it holds above this area with increased volume, a renewed challenge toward the 1.80 high is expected. For the mid-term, prioritize entering after support confirmation, guard against overbought pullbacks, and seize main upward opportunities.

Early last week, breakdowns in US-Iran negotiations intensified geopolitical uncertainty, leading to a short-term rebound in the US Dollar Index and a slight decline in US Treasury yields amid heightened risk aversion. On the day, EUL showed narrowly ranged high-level oscillation, closing around 0.9617 on April 12, with trading volume falling compared to previous periods, indicating a temporary convergence and cautious stance toward macro risks among investors. Overall, this development exerted some short-term pressure but did not trigger a clear downward trend.

Analyst Dilin Wu from Pepperstone states that the failure of US-Iran talks has entrenched uncertainty, causing a short-term strengthening of the US dollar alongside a slight decline in US Treasury yields. After the initial market reaction fades, Treasury yields may show complex movements, with short-term yields dipping due to risk aversion, while rising oil prices could push long-term yields higher by anchoring inflation expectations. Energy and defense sectors are expected to outperform, reflecting supply constraints and increased geopolitical risk premiums.

Analyst: Breakdown in US-Iran talks embeds uncertainty, US dollar to strengthen briefly

Shortly thereafter, expectations for the US central bank to maintain a relatively hawkish stance, along with signs of easing geopolitical tensions, sharply boosted risk appetite. After opening with a gap-up on April 13, EUL closed at 1.1259, gaining over 17% from the previous session. The following two days saw continued expansion to 1.2239, with trading volume surging to over 670,000, confirming bullish momentum. This phase marked a shift of funds from safe-haven assets to high-beta targets, with short-term sentiment turning from pressured to positive.

BitMart Research Weekly highlights easing US-Iran tensions and a hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve, driving a rebound in risk assets including crypto. US stocks, especially AI-related sectors, show strong recovery amid geopolitical risks. Inflation data signals potential upward pressure if oil prices stay high. Crypto markets follow US stocks with BTC and ETH leading, while altcoins remain volatile. Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy’s increased BTC holdings indicate long-term confidence.

BitMart Research Institute Weekly Hotspot Analysis: US-Iran Easing Combined with Fed's Hawkish Shift, Crypto Market Follows Rebound to Form a Bottom

On April 17, Bitcoin returned above $75,000 and pressed towards $78,000, energizing the overall market atmosphere. EUL opened at 1.3275 and saw a robust surge in volume, peaking at 1.8455 and closing at 1.577, with single-day trading volume spiking to 3.95 million, a new historical high. This round of movement reflected big players and whale capital adding positions at key support levels, driving sector resonance. Although facing short-term overbought risk, the trend momentum remains strong.

Euler

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Trump: US-Iran talks progress as Iran suspends nuclear program

Trump warns of bombing if no Iran deal by April 21 ceasefire expiration

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

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Euler Price: EUL Live Price Today | EUL Market Cap & Chart Analysis | Bybit-eu

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EUL price today is 1.55, with a live price change of 13.20 in the last 24 hours. Convert, buy, sell and trade EUL on Bybit-eu.

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