The current daily chart structure of F shows a consolidation range between 0.0049 and 0.0055, with volume and price action indicating significant divergence between bulls and bears. Influenced by tightened macro liquidity and prevailing market caution, the short-term is expected to remain range-bound, lacking clear unilateral momentum. It is advised to buy near 0.0049–0.0050 with a stop loss below 0.0048, and partially reduce positions near 0.0054–0.0055. The mid-term direction depends on marginal changes in liquidity; a breakout above 0.0055 may target 0.0058–0.0060, while a breakdown below 0.0049 would warrant caution for further downside risk.

Since mid-March, F experienced a volume-driven rally, reaching a peak of 0.00728 on March 17, followed by a quick retreat and a sharp correction to the 0.0049 level by late March to early April. Currently, the daily timeframe has formed a horizontal range of 0.0049–0.0055. Recent trading volumes show divergence—volume failed to expand on rebounds, while heavy selling was accompanied by significant trading, indicating intensified bull-bear disagreement. The recent decline has sufficiently tested support near 0.0049, while 0.0054–0.0055 above serves as a short-term resistance cluster. Absent a breakout on expanded volume, range-bound movement is likely to persist in the near term.

At the macro level, energy consumption and policy uncertainty are restraining liquidity. Bitcoin remains in a narrow range, and market participants are clearly adopting a wait-and-see attitude. As a high-risk asset alternative, F is also under pressure, making it difficult to break out of its current consolidation in the short term. Funding conditions are tightening, investors are mostly sidelined, and short-term bulls and bears are evenly matched with no clear driver in sight. This makes sudden surges or deep reversals unlikely.

From a medium- to long-term perspective, if subsequent macro data indicate marginal improvements in liquidity or policy signals hint at easing, F may break out of its current narrow range to challenge resistance at 0.0055, then gradually test the 0.0058–0.0060 level. Conversely, should liquidity continue to tighten, a breach below 0.0049 could open the way for further downside towards 0.0047 or lower. In the short term, it is advised to buy near 0.0049–0.0050 with a stop loss set below 0.0048; if prices rebound into the 0.0054–0.0055 zone, partial profit-taking is suggested, followed by monitoring for further breakout signals.

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Analysis: The non-farm payroll data still shows obvious fluctuations, and the threshold for the Federal Reserve to adjust its policy remains quite high.

Strategist: The latest non-farm payroll data presents a complex situation for the Federal Reserve.

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The U.S. March Non-Farm Payrolls Report Quick Review.

Market pricing shows a decline in bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026.

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