Driven by a low-leverage environment and a rebound in mainstream assets, ONE’s liquidity and price elasticity have significantly improved, and the restoration of market risk appetite is driving further marginal capital inflows. Technically, ONE has broken through the key resistance at 0.00228 USDT; if it can consolidate above 0.00215, there is short-term potential to test the 0.00240—0.00250 range, otherwise attention should be paid to the support at around 0.00205. It is recommended to follow the short-term trend but strictly control position sizing and dynamic stop-losses, and closely monitor the movement of mainstream assets and market capital flows.

Recently, open interest in Bitcoin futures has contracted sharply, bringing overall market leverage to its lowest level in recent years. In this low-leverage context, even small capital inflows are sufficient to move prices, and market sensitivity to news and capital changes has increased significantly. As a relatively small-cap token, ONE’s price volatility is further amplified in this environment, making short-term capital intervention intensity and marginal changes in mainstream assets the main drivers of its price movements.

Bitcoin futures open interest has halved from $42 billion in October 2025 to $21 billion, indicating a deep market deleveraging. Current low leverage means even small capital inflows can significantly impact prices. Funding rates have fluctuated sharply between -12% and +7%, showing rapid shifts in market sentiment. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, no major liquidations have occurred since early February, reflecting a healthier position structure. Bitcoin awaits a clear directional trend amid heightened market sensitivity.

Analysis: The market has undergone a round of deep deleveraging, and Bitcoin is waiting to choose a direction.

Ethereum bulls have regained and consolidated above key support levels, and together with Bitcoin reaching new four-week highs amid easing geopolitical tensions, there is clear linkage. Directional recovery in mainstream assets is attracting a return of risk appetite, with the macro environment shifting from risk aversion to opportunistic positioning. Funds are seeking certainty amid frequent switching between long and short sides in derivatives, and this trend provides room for short-term performance among small-cap tokens. ONE is expected to benefit in parallel from the prevailing bullish market atmosphere.

Market data shows Ethereum buyers are returning, with bulls defending the $2000 support level. Since March 6, Ethereum's aggressive buying volume has remained positive, indicating a recovery in derivatives market demand. The buying pressure dominates at $104 million, marking the first such shift in Ethereum derivatives since the last bear market. Futures open interest nears a historic high, and spot Ethereum ETFs saw a $120 million net inflow, the highest since mid-March.

Analysis: Ethereum's proactive order consumption has remained positive since March, signaling a recovery in the derivatives market.

Bitcoin surged past $72,000, rising about 3% to approximately $72,300, driven by easing tensions in the Middle East. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reportedly initiated talks with Lebanon, supported by Trump's call for reduced Israeli military actions to maintain a ceasefire. Bitcoin's 24-hour gain of around 2% outpaced other major cryptocurrencies and coincided with a rebound in U.S. stocks and a drop in oil prices. Bitcoin is increasingly decoupling from tech stocks, influenced more by geopolitical and risk-averse factors.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks through $72,000, Middle East ceasefire expectations boost market sentiment.

Bitcoin has surpassed a four-week high, rising above $74,000. Analysts identify $75,000 as a critical "volatility release point," where derivative market negative gamma effects may amplify price fluctuations. This level coincides with Bitcoin's 100-day moving average, a key resistance in January. Breaking $75,000 could accelerate an uptrend, while a pullback may increase downward pressure. The $80,000–$80,600 range is a positive gamma zone with lower volatility, and the 200-day moving average at $87,519 serves as a long-term reference.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks four-week high, key price range may intensify market volatility

From the daily chart perspective, after repeatedly consolidating in the 0.00207–0.00210 USDT range, ONE broke through the 0.00228 resistance with high volume on April 16, posting a single-day gain of over 7%. Trading volume increased significantly compared to the previous average, signaling that the bulls are in control. The MACD histogram has turned positive again and short-term moving averages are in a bullish alignment, indicating potential for continued upward movement. If support at 0.00215 holds, the next focus is on resistance in the 0.00240—0.00250 area; otherwise, be cautious of a pullback toward structural support around 0.00205.

Harmony

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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Harmony Price: ONE Live Price Today | ONE Market Cap & Chart Analysis | Bybit-eu

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