Currently, PPBLZ market sentiment is warming up, with short-term bullish expectations dominating the market. However, low liquidity limits price stability. Before the price range (pay close attention to the support below △△, such as recent lows, and resistance above □□, such as retesting highs) is effectively broken through, short-term trading should be cautious. Control position sizes and avoid slippage and liquidation risks under liquidity shocks. Strategically, it is recommended to closely track liquidity changes and range breakout signals, and only scale up positions after a clear direction is established.

Recent signs show market improvement, and bullish sentiment has heated up. Investors’ optimism on macro and industry prospects drives a short-term upbeat atmosphere, with obvious short-covering by bears. However, given the market is still fluctuating within a range, caution is advised regarding profit-taking by short-term holders.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua stated that respected investors like Buffett profit from value and trends, not speculation. He affirmed that 2024 is set to be a bull market due to macro and industry factors beyond individual control. Short sellers are making a final effort but face losses—exiting early means small losses, exiting late means large losses. After a month of market volatility, optimism will prevail while pessimists lag behind.

Yi Lihua: Trend is better than speculation, the bull market is set, bears face "small losses early, big losses late."

Liquidity in short-term contract markets remains scarce, with high concentration of trades—most transaction volume is dominated by a few mainstream assets. Analysis shows that low liquidity may increase the risk of price shocks, easily triggering slippage and liquidation in extreme scenarios. Additionally, clarification of compliance issues and insider trading rumors has reduced systemic risk, but overall liquidity levels have not significantly improved.

Bubblemaps analysis challenges claims of insider trading on Polymarket, highlighting flaws in linking a Polymarket insider's receipt of about 250 SOL from Coinbase to a prior similar deposit with a 99% correlation. They point out issues like large time gaps, ignoring other assets, and multiple matching cases within the same day. Deposits could stem from various sources or older transactions. They warn that improper use of time analysis can lead to incorrect conclusions.

Bubblemaps: Some analyses targeting Polymarket insiders in the market are flawed.

Currently, candlesticks lack clear trend signals, with prices oscillating in a narrow range and trading volume showing a downward trend. Medium- and short-term moving averages are crossing, indicating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, making it impossible to confirm the trend. It is advised to monitor the validity of recent range lows as support and highs as resistance, and only follow up after a breakout is confirmed.

Pepemon Pepeballs

Ouch. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield just hit 5% and bitcoin may pay the price.

Bank of Japan: High oil prices and a weak yen could keep core inflation at around 3% for two consecutive years

The Federal Reserve maintains the interest rate at 3.5%-3.75%, continuing its wait-and-see approach.

Morgan Stanley delays Fed rate cut expectations to next year, inflation pressures remain high.

The Powell era comes to an end: What has he left behind?

Reminder: Please pay special attention to the following (all times are in Beijing time).

US growth likely picked up in first quarter, but consumer spending probably cooled

Morgan Stanley: Expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in 2026 and cut rates in 2027.

Bitcoin Slips to $75K as Federal Reserve Holds Rates, Dimming Warsh “Pivot Party” Hopes

SoSo Macro | Powell Remains Governor, Three Fed Voters Oppose Rate Cuts; Big Tech Cloud Revenue Growth Accelerates

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