QBIT is currently experiencing increased selling pressure due to sustained offloading by large holders, making its price vulnerable, with the 1.10 range suggested as a key support zone. However, recovering retail sentiment combined with bullish option signals may trigger FOMO-driven rallies and heightened volatility if QBIT breaks above the 1.25 resistance level. In the mid-term, close monitoring of cross-market liquidity and macro variables is required. As market structure divergences widen, dynamic position management is advised, prioritizing drawdown risk control during highly volatile periods.

Latest on-chain data shows that large holder positions, excluding exchange addresses, have continued to decline, indicating weakening actual demand from major investors for the underlying asset. This trend of position reduction often leads to greater selling pressure in the secondary market, suppressing short-term prices. Moreover, if valuation models do not adjust in time to reflect actual demand downturns, market expectations may deteriorate further, subjecting QBIT to additional short-term price tests.

CryptoQuant research head Julio Moreno stated that the market misinterprets whale behavior, as many large Bitcoin holders are consolidated within exchange addresses, leading to false assumptions of accumulation. Excluding exchange addresses shows whale balances are actually declining. He emphasized that true Bitcoin demand is slowing monthly and yearly, approaching negative territory, suggesting the need to update valuation models rather than relying solely on price cycles.

CryptoQuant Head of Research: Market Misjudges Whale Behavior, Bitcoin Real Demand Slows and Approaches Negative Territory

Post-holiday activity on social platforms shows a clear recovery in retail sentiment and a keen willingness to buy. However, if the token price rapidly breaks through key resistance and triggers collective buy-ins from momentum chasers, excessive FOMO can emerge in a short period. Historical data suggests that the peak of panic buying in the retail sector is often followed by rapid sell-offs and profit-taking by institutions, causing sharp price pullbacks from the peak. Therefore, caution is advised, as sudden sentiment swings may amplify QBIT's short-term volatility.

Santiment analysts note that retail investor sentiment on social media has been strong at the start of the year, reflecting a positive mood after the holidays. However, they caution that the market's further rise depends on retail investors maintaining caution and not succumbing to excessive FOMO. A rapid Bitcoin surge to $92,000 could trigger significant FOMO, which historically signals potential market downturns following peaks.

Santiment: Retail sentiment started the year positively; if Bitcoin quickly rises to $92K, it could trigger FOMO.

Recently, the options market has seen an uptick in bullish positions and increased activity in straddle strategies, reflecting investor optimism about future volatility. Meanwhile, continued rallies in Asian markets and fresh highs in U.S. stocks point toward sustained cross-market capital flows into the crypto asset sector. If macro factors or geopolitical events drive liquidity toward digital assets, QBIT could gain additional bullish support in the mid-term, though the accompanying rise in volatility should be closely monitored.

QCP's market analysis on January 5 highlights a strengthening crypto market in Asia, with Bitcoin and Ethereum surpassing $92,000 and $3,100 respectively, driven by US actions in Venezuela, year-end tax-loss trading, and rising crypto legislation expectations. Speculation about Venezuela holding significant "shadow Bitcoin reserves" and using USDT in oil trades could make it a major sovereign BTC holder. Options data show a bullish shift, with increased call options and straddle strategies indicating short covering and bets on upward volatility.

QCP: Venezuela Situation and Options Funding Resonance Strengthen Bullish Expectations in the Crypto Market

On January 7, U.S. stock markets closed mixed with the Dow up 0.99%, S&P 500 up 0.6%, and Nasdaq up 0.65%, all hitting new highs. Cryptocurrency stocks showed varied performance: Coinbase fell 1.71%, Circle rose 0.06%, and Strategy (MSTR) dropped 4.1%. After MSCI announced it would not remove DAT companies from its index, some DAT stocks, including MSTR, surged in after-hours trading, with MSTR rising 7.17%.

U.S. crypto stocks closed mixed on Tuesday, with MSTR down 4.1%, but rising 7.17% in after-hours trading due to positive news.

Qubit

Crypto braces for volatility as Warsh hearing nears and rate cut odds slide

Economist: US March CPI monthly rate may surge 1%, Federal Reserve may find it difficult to cut interest rates this year.

Economists predict that the US CPI will increase by 1% month-over-month in March, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

Slepne: The European Central Bank will discuss either raising interest rates or keeping them unchanged.

Economist: US March CPI monthly rate may surge 1%, the Fed may find it difficult to cut interest rates this year

Trump’s statement boosts odds of Iranian regime falling by June 30 to 14%

US forces’ entry into Iran by April 30 market jumps to 86% amid clashes

Odds for US forces entering Iran by April 30 rise to 86.5% after F-15E recovery

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US considers seizing strategic islands near Iran, ceasefire odds plummet

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