The PHB contract has been impacted by global risk-off sentiment, showing a high-volume decline in the short term, dominated by main short positions. The key support at $0.25 has been breached, intensifying bearish sentiment. Attention is now focused on the historical low support range of $0.228-$0.233. If volume recovers and stabilizes above $0.27, it may signal the end of the downtrend. Mid- and short-term investors are advised to wait cautiously for risk-off sentiment to ease and capital to flow back. Without clear fundamental improvement, long-term bullish positioning is not recommended, with an emphasis instead on risk control and monitoring key price levels.

Since January 20, global financial markets have experienced turmoil as Japanese long-term bond sell-offs pushed US Treasury yields higher, leading to simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and the US dollar. Risk-averse funds have flocked to precious metals and hard assets. In this context, crypto assets have undergone broad de-leveraging and sell pressure, causing both Bitcoin and Ethereum to pull back. The PHB contract saw abnormal volatility between January 19-20, with intense price swings and explosive trading volume, reflecting heightened caution towards risk exposure and emotional panic selling.

On the daily chart, PHB showed a long lower-shadow candlestick on January 19, attempting to absorb sell pressure and quickly rebounding above $0.298. However, the price failed to hold, as the following day saw a gap-up open transitioning into a strong bearish candlestick, dropping over 16% to close at $0.2527. Trading volume surged past 1 million contracts over two days, with short-term bears prevailing and high-volume turnover marking a shift in trend. The breach of the key $0.25 support further fueled the downward momentum, and sentiment turned increasingly pessimistic.

The mid-term trend has been correcting since the January 6 high of $0.308, with more than 20% of gains given up. In the short term, the price has broken through the $0.272-$0.285 consolidation channel. The next area of focus below is the historical low support zone at $0.228-$0.233, while a move back above $0.27 would signal a potential end to the decline, provided it is accompanied by stable volume. If macro risk-off sentiment subsides, the market may retest the $0.30 resistance region; otherwise, investors should wait for capital to re-enter and confirm value opportunities for the mid-to-long term.

Phoenix Global [OLD]

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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