RED has been under continuous pressure since March, affected by macro liquidity tightening and market risk aversion. After breaking below the key support at 0.13-0.14 USDT, a clear downward trend has formed. Although there was a short-term rebound from 0.10 USDT due to easing geopolitical tensions, the trading volume was insufficient, and overall confidence is yet to recover. In the medium to long term, if there is no significant improvement in liquidity or favorable policy, RED may continue to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to pay attention to the support below 0.10 USDT and the resistance zone at 0.115-0.12 USDT, adopt a strategy of buying on dips and taking profits at high levels within the range, and dynamically track macro and geopolitical variables to capture trend inflection points.

Since March, RED's price has gradually declined from above 0.15 USDT to around 0.12 USDT. Although there was a brief technical rebound mid-month, it failed to sustain. Trading volume increased significantly during the decline, indicating bearish dominance. On the macro level, global liquidity has contracted due to rising energy prices, tightening monetary policy, and geopolitical risks, resulting in strong market caution and making it difficult for risk assets to gain continuous buying support. Technically, RED has broken through the key support level at 0.13-0.14 USDT, establishing a short-term downward trend, and the market is leaning towards cautious observation.

Bitcoin remains in a narrow trading range amid constrained macro liquidity and unclear price direction. Multiple pressures from energy prices, monetary policy, and geopolitical risks compress market liquidity, leading to a cautious stance. Technical support lies between $67,000-$69,000, with resistance near $72,000. Without increased demand, the market is expected to stay range-bound, awaiting a breakout influenced by macroeconomic data, policy signals, and geopolitical developments.

Analysis: Bitcoin is stuck in a narrow range, macro liquidity is constrained, and the market is waiting for a directional breakout.

Recently, expectations of US-Iran negotiations triggered a rebound in risk assets across the board, pushing BTC near $72,000 and causing a short-term improvement in altcoin liquidity and sentiment. At the end of March, RED saw a technical rebound from the 0.10 USDT threshold, peaking in the 0.105-0.11 USDT range. However, trading volume did not significantly improve, indicating that market confidence remains insufficient. In the short term, favorable geopolitical conditions have provided emotional support, but it remains to be seen whether subsequent macro liquidity and policy variables can provide more solid momentum for altcoin rebounds.

Based on current technical and news factors, for RED to break out of range-bound trading, improvements in macro liquidity or new geopolitical/policy boosts are required. The 0.10 USDT level below has been a support zone for multiple recent attempts to halt the decline. If breached, further downside is possible; the resistance zone at 0.115-0.12 USDT above serves as short-term resistance, and breaking through could pave the way for a rebound. In trading, opportunities to buy on dips at the support zone below should be considered, and partial profit-taking is recommended if prices recover to the resistance zone. At the same time, closely monitor upcoming macro data releases and geopolitical developments to capture genuine trend turning points.

Red The Mal

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The White House is considering an extreme scenario where oil prices exceed $150 and may use emergency powers to stabilize fuel costs.

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